Adam Elbourne

Wouldn't it make more sense to model it as a downward trend with an upward structural break in 2020? Ie medical advances and lifestyle advice keep improving but we added an extra virus that causes/exacerbates things like heart disease on top of all the direct deaths it brings.

Antibody escape drives emergence of diverse spike haplotypes resembling variants of concern in persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections Snell et al. develop sequencing methodology to identify full-length spike haplotypes and show that persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections drive divergent haplotype emergence, accelerating viral evolution an...

This is finally out.

Very short take home. All the variation in spike that produced the immune escape characteristics of Omicron can occur in one single persistently infected individual over the period of a year.

This is why persistent infections matter

www.cell.com/cell-reports...

Looking at the clinical trials data, the first patients started in Sep 22. China gave up zero covid in Dec 22, at which point almost all participants would have got covid, whichever group they were in. Flu and other transmissible infections in China - I don't know anything about.

The time of day for cancer immunotherapy is associated with major outcomes. Early is better. Results from a randomized trial of lung cancer, backs up the importance of our circadian rhythm and immune system
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I'll stream a Introductory Talk about the IndoorCO2Map.com project tomorrow (Sunday) on 19.00 CET (6 pm UTC, 1 pm EST, am PST ) on www.youtube.com/@aurelwu/live . I will be joined by Sam Herniman ( fosstodon.org/@samherniman ) who is working on creating automated reports from the collected data.

The expensive purchase of insurance against the actions of mad kings that Carney was talking about. Plus social-media-fried brains?

This is essentially blackmail and could endanger vaccine supply for many countries that need thiomersal in vaccines to keep them stable when they lack infrastructure to keep vaccines cool in transport and storage 🧵

Als ik "Er zijn geen aanwijzingen dat deze varianten ziekmakender zijn dan eerdere (sub)varianten" lees, denk ik altijd aan de aanwijzingen van Russische invloed op de Brexit referendum...

I've always thought that the enormous week-to-week variation at individual wastewater plants is either sensitivity of the method or that some individuals shed enormous quantities. So if Tilburg had a supershedder who then recovers, the value will be very high then very low.

Has anyone studied the variation in how much virus people shed into the wastewater system? I remember @solidevidence.bsky.social sharing one (large) treatment plant in the US where 1 cryptic/chronic infection was producing more virus than everyone else put together.

"If more people understood more about how fascinating, beautiful, terrifying, and dangerous viruses are, maybe they would understand why it’s so important to keep studying them and learning how to stop them from spreading and causing disease."
@angierasmussen.bsky.social

Moderna Won’t Run Phase III Vaccine Trials as Skepticism Grows in US: Bloomberg Growing opposition to vaccines in the U.S., driven by recent government policy changes, makes it difficult to see a return on investment in vaccine development, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said this w...

Moderna have announced that they won't run new phase three trials now with massive impacts for new vaccine development- why- its because of RFK Jr and his anti-vaccine campaigns and cancelling mRNA vaccine research which affect the sales the company can then make 🧪🧵 #PublicHealth

Reporting on the Minneapolis ICE shooting, BBC News is soaked to the skin but still not sure if it's raining... In an attempt to maintain balance, the BBC is letting obvious lies go unchallenged.

NEW| Reporting on the Minneapolis ICE shooting, BBC News is soaked to the skin but still not sure if it's raining...

brokenbottleboy.substack.com/p/reporting-...

YouTube video by Jakub Holáň That Mitchell & Webb Look - Nazi Sketch (English subtitles)

This comedy sketch is 12 years old but resonates more than ever now Trump has unleashed his own SS on US streets. Now Farage calling for his own version should chill everyone in the UK. Vote NO TO REFORM
youtube.com/watch?v=SMMw...

Am beyond furious at the BBC bothsiding the latest murder on American streets. There isn't a "war of words" or "finger pointing". Watch the fxxxing videos. One side is fxxxing lying. This is shameful

End of Days stuff - Daily Mail outperforms BBC at accurate reporting of a far-right attack.

New Cryptic (North Carolina) derived from a 2020, pre-B.1.1 lineage, meaning from an infection that has lasted nearly six years.

It has one of the classic patterns of Cryptic reversions to Bat-CoV/SARS-1 spike residues: Q498Y-N501T.

Eager to see the rest of the genome.

I can’t quite convey how frightening it is that people who think it’s fine to let people catch deadly diseases like polio rather than have a vaccine are in charge of US vaccine policies

-laughs nervously in Ukrainian-

So er, I don't want to be alarmist my Canadian friends but it's not a GREAT sign when the superpower next door starts talking about how the people of a resource rich region of yours yearn for the freedom to join them and suggesting referendums...

Airport Book Brain How faddish ideas keep seducing.

🚨NEW BLOGPOST🚨

Fast answers, overconfidence and the superficial appearance of rigour. Airport bookstores are the perfect place for those who chase fresh ideas without doing the legwork.
Unfortunately, much of our policy is shaped by the same impulse.
www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/airport-bo...

Trump, Vance, and Kushner have been making speeches that contain odd phrases: 'you don't turn the Titanic around overnight', 'catastrophic success' etc.

Remember it's propaganda. And they have AI to make us respond how they want.

Not everything that seems stupid is stupid.
bsky.app/profile/dunc...

The inside of our robot vacuum cleaner with a €50 note stuck in it.

For some reason my wife can't quite explain, she's been leaving €50 notes around on the bedroom floor... and the robot vacuum cleaner has sucked them all up. Should I be concerned?

Not so fun fact: Tear gas isn’t a “gas”

If it’s not a gas, then what is it?

Answer: it’s an aerosol. And this distinction matters.

Let’s discuss 🧵

Seems to be the most dramatic breakthrough in preventing/slowing dementia & alzheimer's ever. But it's a vaccine, so it doesn't get headlines.

Wish you could get the shingles vaccine before age 50. You don't have to be 50 to get shingles—I can attest as I had it last summer (not recommended).

Europeans after managing to prevent the collapse of NATO for another 1-2 weeks…

#Europe #Rutte

Labour burnishes its Brexit credentials - UK in a changing Europe Based on the most recent edition of the UK-EU Divergence Tracker, Joël Reland argues that, despite rhetoric about aligning more closely with...

"It is something of a paradox that, for all this govt.’s talk of closer alignment with the single market, it is doing a better job than its predecessors of delivering divergence from EU rules."

@jreland.bsky.social reflects on UK-EU regulatory divergence under Labour

ukandeu.ac.uk/labour-burni...

Antivaccine activists

Trump:

"NATO has treated the United States very badly. We've never asked for anything. We've never got anything."

Tell that to the families of 850 soldiers from 19 non-US NATO countries who died fighting to defend the United States in Afghanistan - the only occasion Article 5 was ever triggered.

He keeps referring to Greenland as Iceland.
His dementia is on full display. Just look at him slumped over the podium . Time for people to get up and leave the clown show.

NEW: NEW: Standards commissioner finds Nigel Farage committed seventeen breaches of MPs code of conduct.

He failed to declare £333,000 in outside interests (more than 3x MPs annual salary)…