Ryan Allen

60-day precipitation departure from normal. Most all states, with a few notable exceptions, are quite dry.

Does that mean you attended post Post Malone?

It's been a dry last 30 days for most places.

The 50th Anniversary of the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald: A New Perspective on an Old Storm: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...

FEMA has denied or not advanced most Kerr County aid applications after deadly July 4 flood Advocates are questioning why so many applicants from the flood-ravaged county have not received federal disaster help. Nonprofits are trying to fill in the gaps.

FEMA has denied or not advanced most Kerr County aid applications after deadly July 4 flood.

grist.org/extreme-weat...

#Texas #TX #Flood #FEMA #Weather

A line graph displaying the one minute maximum sustained winds of Hurricane Erin compared to the power dissipated over the entire circulation. The two curves show some correlation between each other, but diverged during the period when Hurricane Erin grew in size between its first and second intensity peaks.

Pretty neat! I made a graph comparing Erin's Vmax with the power it is dissipating over its entire circulation. Cool to see it go up as Erin was expanding (as your radii show very well), despite the intensity coming down off the main peak.

I liked it better when 1488 was just an FM road north of Houston. Sad!

Hey, this is what I’m paid to do!

Tough but fair.

It might be hard right now, but thank you for your hard work and dedication to your profession. This sounds like one of the most difficult uses of your skill, but thank you.

That was also true in 1996, but for the wrong reason, it was 100.

Gotta wait until after August 7th here.

A photo of Yosemite NP from Washburn Point, featuring Half Dome, Vernal Falls, and Nevada Falls.

Art. #photography

Better forecasting of flash floods is needed. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory “is working to develop higher resolution modeling, but it's on the chopping block in the president's proposed budget.”

This is a dangerous lie.

30 of 122 WFOs don’t have an MIC.

NWS is famously flexible, but you can’t let 14% (600/4300) of an already thin workforce go - especially the senior staff - and then claim “overstaffing”.

You can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps.

Flood Watch issued yesterday at 1:18 pm.

WPC had mesoscale discussions throughout the event.

NWS issues Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 am.

NWS issues Flash Flood Emergency at 4:03 am.

NWS was on the ball.

The challenge is always getting the warning the last mile and getting people to respond.

The missing piece of this viral post is that the Texas officials are lying and deflecting blame. The NWS, hobbled as it is, issued an accurate flood watch for Kerr County the evening before and accurate escalating warnings overnight as the flood was developing.

Lots of thunder with this one. I'm just a few miles southeast of it at the moment. With how it's behaving on radar and satellite, this could be a real bad one.

Over 7 inches in the last two hours west of Round Rock...

*This* is why we call the Balcones Escarpment area, the Texas Hill Country, Flash Flood Alley.

Locals and longtime visitors know, it can be very dangerous very fast. I can only really compare it to mountain flash flooding- just rain sluicing off of rock and into the closest channels.

Catastrophic overnight flash flooding in central Texas Also likely to see a tropical cyclone east of Florida in next 24 hours

I did a deep dive into the horrific flash flooding that occurred overnight in central Texas. Very scared that this is going to end up being a long remembered, infamous July 4th weather event.

open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

NOAA budget spells out plans to reduce spending and abandon climate research A detailed expense budget for NOAA outlines plans to reduce spending and cut climate and atmospheric research.

NOAA budget package details plans to reduce spending, staff, climate research and shut down its labs and cooperative institutes with universities. #NOAA #climatechange www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.

For perspective: a recent study suggested that economic savings from just a *single* well-predicted hurricane, thanks to NOAA research advancements, are on order of *$5 billion.* That exceeds NOAA's *entire proposed annual operating budget.* So much for government efficiency.

NOAA Proposes Permanently Closing Premiere Hurricane Research Institute In its proposed 2026 budget released Monday, NOAA closes all federally funded weather and climate research labs, including the one responsible for maintaining the nation’s top hurricane models

It's hard to adequately summarize how destructive NOAA's 2026 proposed budget released on Monday is for hurricane forecasting, but I crammed all I could into today's newsletter. I encourage everyone with interests along the coast to read it carefully. ⬇️

Terminating weather and climate labs and cooperative institutes immediately makes us less safe from severe weather and climate events.

The research conducted at these labs has given us improvements to hurricane, storm surge, tornado, and severe thunderstorm warnings.

Budget "blue book" is finally out with NOAA details to the OMB budget. From a quick look no big surprises, clearly spells out the disastrous impacts & confirms things like elimination of VORTEX/WoFS. I'll have more later but this earlier post has impacts

balancedweather.substack.com/p/noaa-is-no...

The impact of these cuts now, next year, 10 years, 50 years will be immeasurable. The overall cuts to science will go down in history as one of the biggest self-owns of all time.
"What if we take what our superpower,-our investment in science and technology- and just obliterate it?"

Termination of OAR’s Climate Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes (-$102,292, -204 FTE/ -216 Positions) –NOAA will continue to support high priority ocean and weather research programs in NOS and NWS. In coordination with the requested terminations for Weather Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes (see OAR-10) and Ocean Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes (see OAR-19), NOAA will close the Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami, FL; the Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) in College Park, MD, Idaho Falls, ID, and Oak Ridge, TN, as well as a nation-wide network of soil moisture sensors; the Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL) in Boulder, CO; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, NJ; the Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) in Boulder, CO, Utqiaġvik, AK, Mauna Loa, HI, Hilo, HI, Big Island, HI, American Samoa, and the South Pole; the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) in Seattle, WA; and the Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) in Boulder, CO.

What a tragedy this is even being proposed on paper... 💔

NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...

Enjoy this DMSP-17 SSMIS Microwave image of Tropical Storm #Flossie in the East Pacific -- after receiving a generous 5-day notice, the entire DMSP constellation is being deactivated tomorrow.

Source: tropic.ssec.wisc.edu