Neale Mahoney

Healthcare’s employment growth clouded by immigration crackdown, Medicaid cuts The healthcare sector is a bright spot in the economy this year, driving nearly half of the nation’s employment gains, but economists and experts say immigration crackdowns and looming Medicaid cuts…

These are not only bad policies that will impact patients, but also the economy at large. #healthcare #Medicaid

Healthcare’s employment growth clouded by immigration crackdown, Medicaid cuts www.latimes.com/business/sto... via @latimes.com CC: @nealemahoney.bsky.social @allisonbegrace.bsky.social

What’s next for Fannie and Freddie: SIEPR’s latest Policy Brief, from fmr NEC deputy director Daniel Hornung and Stanford econ PhD student Ben Sampson, looks at 3 potential reforms and introduces a framework for assessing their possible impacts on mortgage rates, homebuyers.

tinyurl.com/35mxsnrf

The future of the innovation economy Three experts spanning artificial intelligence and economics explore the implications of AI and how it could transform creativity, jobs, education, and public policy through the rapidly evolving “inno...

How could AI transform creativity, jobs, education and public policy? SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social and @susanathey.bsky.social, and @drfeifei.bsky.social, share their insights in this special episode of the Stanford Engineering's "Future of Everything" podcast. 👇

tinyurl.com/4wn3ekyz

Women and men almost always feel differently about the economy, SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social find in a new analysis of University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. 👇

🧵 The affordability squeeze in this country is real. In a new SIEPR Policy Brief, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social introduce a 3-legged framework for addressing the problem of rising costs for basic necessities, from health care to housing. tinyurl.com/f5hb93u5

The incomparable @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I have a new piece on the affordability agenda. The piece

- Lays out principles for addressing affordability
- Presents our three-legged stool framework
- Discusses ideas for housing, healthcare, childcare, and more

siepr.stanford.edu/publications...

A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda! Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney.

New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles:
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...

There's a lot of bad happening in the world today. So take some time to read something good--dare I say, great!--from
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!

Jared Bernstein is LIVE NOW with @nealemahoney.bsky.social.

Get your economy questions answered: contrarian.substack.com/live-stream/...

Here's the full list of my academic research: nmahoney.people.stanford.edu/academic-pap....

You can also check out some of my short-form research here: nealemahoney.substack.com

Come join our team!

I'm hiring predocs to work with me on econ policy research projects starting in Summer 2026. Topics include healthcare, consumer finance, energy markets, housing, and childcare.

You'll be part of an awesome community of @siepr.bsky.social predocs.

Details here:
siepr.stanford.edu/programs/sie...

Updated our numbers with Caleb Brobst on how healthcare jobs are propping up the labor market

- Healthcare jobs were 133% of non-farm payroll growth over last 3 months. Non-health care was negative.
- Healthcare jobs were 49% of NFP over last 6 months

Link to original piece: lnkd.in/eaRfxMDB

Exclusive | Americans Lose Faith That Hard Work Leads to Economic Gains, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds Trump is contending with a disconnect between the nation’s sour outlook and traditional measures showing a robust economy.

🧵 Is the American dream a mirage? Shocking new @wsj.com poll finds that 70 percent of Americans now think so. In exploring this and other findings, the WSJ begins with a quote from SIEPR director @nealemahoney.bsky.social, lamenting the loss of Americans' "relentless optimism."

tinyurl.com/mryzy2ny

Economists: Trump’s New Tariff Rules Will Fuel Inflation Economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research explain the impact of Trump's tariff policy.

New piece in TIME this morning with Adam Shaw on tomorrow's closure of the de minimis exemption, which will raise tariffs on shipments under $800.

We write that the decision compounds one bad policy with another under the misguided notion that two wrongs make a right.

time.com/7312977/stan...

This just in from SIEPR director @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Adam Shaw: New #tariffs on small shipments, set to take effect Aug. 29, are a terrible idea for a lot of reasons. 👇

Economists: Trump’s New Tariff Rules Will Fuel Inflation Economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research explain the impact of Trump's tariff policy.

New piece in TIME this morning with Adam Shaw on tomorrow's closure of the de minimis exemption, which will raise tariffs on shipments under $800.

We write that the decision compounds one bad policy with another under the misguided notion that two wrongs make a right.

time.com/7312977/stan...

Some warning signs in this timely look at the country's No. 1 job engine, from SIEPR director @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Caleb Brobst, SIEPR predoctoral research fellow. #EconSky #LaborMarket

Healthcare Jobs Are Propping Up the Labor Market How Long Can It Last?

New Substack w/ Caleb Brobst on how healthcare jobs are propping up the labor market and whether it can continue in the face of new headwinds.

open.substack.com/pub/nealemah...

Stanford Open Minds New York Immerse yourself in a day of discovering cutting-edge ideas. Join us at Stanford Open Minds for an unforgettable day of inspiration and connection in a stunning Manhattan setting.

Thrilled to announce that I’ll be at Stanford Open Minds: New York on Sep 13 for a live “Future of Everything” pod, exploring how technology, science, and medicine are shaping our lives.

Register here: openminds.stanford.edu/new-york

Trump’s Tariff Policy Raising Prices of Coffee, Clothing and More | KQED For months, economists have predicted that Trump’s tariff policy would crash the economy. While that has not yet happened, leading economic indicators, like inflation and jobs numbers, do indicate…

🎙️ON AIR:

We're speaking with economics professor @nealemahoney.bsky.social, financial analyst @tracyalloway.bsky.social and Andytown Coffee Roasters' Corazon Padilla about the impact of this latest round of tariffs.

❓ How have your spending and savings habits changed?

📻 Listen:

Tariffs Are Not Costless Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it's us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent…

THU at 9AM:

Economics professor @nealemahoney.bsky.social, financial analyst @tracyalloway.bsky.social and Andytown Coffee Roasters' Corazon Padilla join to talk about how this latest round of tariffs is impacting consumers and businesses.

❓ How have your spending and savings habits changed?

Trump’s Tariff Policy Raising Prices of Coffee, Clothing and More | KQED For months, economists have predicted that Trump’s tariff policy would crash the economy. While that has not yet happened, leading economic indicators, like inflation and jobs numbers, do indicate tha...

I'll be on @kqedforum.bsky.social at 9 am pt talking tariffs. Check it out!

www.kqed.org/forum/201010...

From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool:
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...

Everybody's Talking About Affordability Policy. But How's That Supposed to Work? Here's a framework on which to build out the policies and the big-tent politics.

Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy.
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...

Click-to-cancel is canceled — and only a glimmer of hope remains for its revival The FTC's rule to make canceling subscriptions as easy as they were to sign up was blocked just days before it was set to go into effect.

Spoke with @ayeletsheffey.bsky.social at @businessinsider.com about how the cancellation of "click to cancel" will waste people's time, increase switching costs, and make markets less competitive.

www.businessinsider.com/ftc-blocks-s...

How to Limit Medical Debt's Impact on Your Credit A Biden-era rule that would have removed medical debt from credit reports will no longer go into effect.

As I told @chantellelee.bsky.social for @time.com, “medical debt does not have meaningful predictive power for people’s creditworthiness. Part of the reason is that medical debt, more than any other form of debt, is the result of bad luck, not bad financial behavior.”

time.com/7302883/medi...

Debt collectors win, medical debtor holders lose, as SIEPR Director @nealemahoney.bsky.social explains. #EconSky

5. The decision comes exactly one week after Trump signed the OBBBA.

The CBO estimates that bill will strip 16 million people of their health insurance.

By allowing reporting of medical debt, the decision removes a financial safety net when it's more important than ever

Credit score creep A WSJ article on landlords tanking credit scores in rent disputes raises broader questions and reminds us why we need the CFPB

4. Debt collectors use medical debt reporting for leverage

If you don't pay up, they'll report your debt and tank your credit

Credit scores should be used to provide credit, not for this

nealemahoney.substack.com/p/credit-sco...

3. Removing medical debt does little to harm credit score accuracy

A 2014 CFPB report found medical debt was less predictive than non-medical debt of adverse outcomes

My understanding is that FICO subsequently down-weighted medical debt

files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201405_cfp...