Dr Verner Viisainen

Our Approach to Climate Policy Has Failed. It’s Time for Climate Realism U.S. policymakers need a new strategy to confront the risks of climate change, compete in the global energy transition, and stay the course regardless of which political party is in power. A doctrine…

"climate realism" reading a lot like "sacrificing the global south and just shooting for 3 C"

www.cfr.org/article/our-...

(not April fool's - just an unfortunate start date 😅)

🚨Personal News:

As of today, I have started as the Impact Research and Evidence Manager at SBTi.

I will be working at the intersection of research, comms and strategy, evaluating SBTi’s impact on reducing emissions.

Thanks to everyone at @carbonbrief.org for making my time there so memorable!

Another year, another (territorial) emissions drop for the UK

See our analysis below ⬇️

Trump's aid cuts are bad news for international climate finance.

I looked through the available data to work out how bad...

Around 8% of the climate finance pledged to developing countries by rich countries last year came from the US.

Those funds are now under threat.

➡️ buff.ly/BuxwfSL

I enjoyed writing this week's #DeBriefed newsletter for @carbonbrief.org!

As part of this, I wrote a piece that takes you behind the scenes of how @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social and I went about doing our recent analysis on UK airport expansion.

Find the full newsletter below. ⬇️

In the past two years, floods ruined soybeans growing in Brazil, a hurricane destroyed millions of $$ worth of crops in Jamaica and drought hit Sri Lankan rice

This new interactive map gives a snapshot of how extreme weather is damaging crops, feat. 100 news stories from 2023-24

buff.ly/42Rqf2D

NEW: Just 10/195 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement met the UN’s 10 Feb deadline to submit their 2035 climate pledges

UN climate chief Simon Stiell said latecomers must submit by September

Analysis: UK could approve 13 new oil and gas projects despite North Sea pledge - Carbon Brief The UK government could approve 13 new oil and gas projects in the North Sea, with the fuel produced emitting 350m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e)

In light of the Guardian's front page today, just reupping my story from August reporting that Labour could approve up to *13* new oil and gas projects like Rosebank

These are projects that have a license but still need to obtain development consent from gov

www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...

New runways at London airports would result in cumulative emissions of around 92m tonnes of extra CO2e by 2050, if the number of flights increases in line with their operating company targets.

Carbon Brief’s analysis covered by Anushka Asthana on @itvpeston.bsky.social

➡️ buff.ly/3WJ9Ut1

Overtaking what looks like a Formula 1 car is really making the point

Not sure on the single most effective way to achieve this but some of the options that have been proposed include things like a kerosene/jet fuel tax (flights currently not taxed on their fuel), a frequent flyer levy and banning short haul flights where rail alternatives exist.

Our new analysis on UK airport expansion!

Note: the comparison to forests is very much a hypothetical comparison that is meant to highlight the scale of these expansions.

We cannot just tree plant our way out of any potential expansion of fossil fuel use (although more trees is always nice!).

NEW ANALYSIS - With the UK government poised to back the expansion of Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton, we crunched the numbers on the climate impact of these plans.

The UK would need to plant a new forest 2X the size of London to offset the emissions from all the extra flights 🌳✈️

➡️ buff.ly/4hsYYrt

This one sounds like a cool job!

Solar and wind growth in the EU has pushed fossil fuel power to a 40-year low in 2024, with solar alone overtaking coal generation for the first time, according to our analysis of new figures from energy analysts @ember-energy.org

Now you see why @carbonbrief.org estimated that a Trump presidency would add an extra four billion tonnes of CO₂ₑ to the atmosphere by 2030.

I assume most people know this, but seems important to point out basic truths at this moment in time. There is no energy emergency in the U.S. The U.S. is the world's top producer of oil and gas at the moment, and the top exporter of gas, and U.S. oil and gas producers are making record profits.

Apply apply apply!

Feel free to reach out if you have any related questions!

Brilliant documentary - would also recommend everyone to watch this.

It's only 25 minutes long and will likely leave a much longer impression on you.

Fardowsa is such an inspiration!

Opinion | As a Climate Scientist, I Knew It Was Time to Leave Los Angeles (Gift Article) After the Bobcat Fire, L.A. no longer felt safe.

A few years ago, my friend, outspoken climate scientist Peter Kalmus @climatehuman.bsky.social, moved his family out of LA because he could extrapolate from the data. This week the house where he raised his kids burned down.

His words for us all (gift link):

🧪

www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/o...

Britain’s electricity supplies were the cleanest in history last year as fossil-fuel power generation sank to its lowest since 1955, the year Rock Around the Clock topped the charts

www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%

www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Our NEW analysis - just released!

The carbon intensity of UK electricity was only 124gCO2/kWh in 2024, down 70% from 419gCO2/kWh in 2014.

One word: Plastics.

www.carbonbrief.org/five-charts-...

h/t @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org and the excellent @carbonbrief.org team

*Assuming that production reduction continues linearly at the same rate between 2040-50 as between 2025-40 and that the emissions intensity of plastics stays the same throughout (simplified assumption as likely to see at least some reduction through decarbonisation measures - see below).

5/END

Thanks to Dan Gocher for the useful daily insights from on the ground in Busan!

Only a few days to go until negotiations wrap up on Sunday!

Read more of our analysis in the article we released earlier this week with @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org:

https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3

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In the chair's latest draft treaty text that came out this morning...

this Panama proposal has been added as an option under Article 6 on 'Supply/Sustainable Production'.

Let's see if it makes it into the final text.

https://buff.ly/3ZtNOwD

3/

Building on this, on Weds, Panama published a new proposal on supply, backed by nearly 100 other countries.

It calls on countries to set a global target "to reduce the production primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels".

Momentum seems to be building.

https://buff.ly/49jT7lp

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