Felix Münchow

Entangled fates—the rally effect around Europe due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Humanities and Social Sciences Communications - Entangled fates—the rally effect around Europe due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

In our new publication to @nature.com Humanities & Social Sciences Communications @muhx2.bsky.social and I explore if the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine increased support for European integration among Europeans. The answer is yes!

A short 🧵:

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵

Survey Nonresponse After Elections: Investigating the Role of Winner-Loser Effects in Panel Attrition Abstract. When and for whom do election outcomes drive survey nonresponse? This paper investigates whether belonging to the winners or losers of an electio

🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨

Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really.

The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇

academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

🚨🚨 NEW PRE-PRINT 🚨🚨

Prominent theories in political psychology argue that threat causes increases in conservatism. Early experimental work supported this idea, but many of these studies were (severely) underpowered, and examined only a few threats and ideological DVs. 1/n osf.io/preprints/ps...

Abstract Social group appeals are a crucial but often overlooked aspect of party competition. Challenger parties differ from dominant parties not only in their issue entrepreneurship and anti-establishment rhetoric, but also in how they approach social groups. Whereas dominant parties can and must use their policy record when appealing to groups rhetorically, challenger parties compensate for their lack of policy influence and long-lasting group ties by using more symbolic groupbased appeals, creating affective affiliations with voters while avoiding accountability or dividing their potential base. Similarly, they are more inclined to use negative group-based appeals. Using a most-similar-systems design and a new dataset of 15,460 tweets from German subnational parties, our main finding is that dominant parties, particularly those having held the prime minister’s office, favour policy-based group appeals, while challengers rely more on symbolic appeals. However, differences in appeal strategies diminish during campaign times. Our findings underline the importance of groupbased appeals for mainstream-challenger competition.

Thrilled to see my 1st PhD paper out in #PartyPolitics! Based on ~15000 posts by 86 German subnat. parties (2015-2019), Simon Franzmann & I show that dominant & challenger parties differ in the use of policy-based vs symbolic & positive vs negative appeals.

🔓:
doi.org/10.1177/1354...

The first paper of my dissertation has been published in West European Politics!
@wepsocial.bsky.social

See the thread below:

Our article w/Justin Robinson on authoritarianism in 🇬🇧 is published in the new issue of @polbehavior.bsky.social

We employ a longitudinal analysis using the @britishelectionstudy.com to investigate the causal effect of the psychological trait of authoritarianism on political attitudes and voting 🧵

New paper on misperceptions out in PNAS @pnas.org

www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Why do people overestimate the size of politically relevant groups (immigrant, LGBTQ, Jewish) and quantities (% of budget spent on foreign aid, % of refugees that are criminals)?🧵👇

Published Today in PSRM:

Based on a novel “Multiple Unexpected Events during Survey Design” (MUESD), I contextualize previous findings suggesting that Europeans become more empathetic toward migrants when exposed to migrant suffering.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

A Summary Thread: 1/15

..und noch ein Fall, in dem ein rechsextremer Vierfachmord unter dem medialen Radar läuft. Am 25. März 2024 starben die Eltern und ihre beiden drei Jahre und wenige Monate alten Töchter bei einem Brandanschlag. Erinnert an die Toten. Und die Medien an ihre verdammte demokratische Verantwortung.

The "everyone is biased" bias On the problems with excessive epistemic cynicism

I wrote about what I call the "everyone is biased" bias and the problems with excessive cynicism: www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/the-everyo...

Reaching for former employees? I'll try my best.

Social norms and the expression of prejudice: How the norm changes Social norms influence how opinions are expressed. The norm against prejudice discourages individuals from expressing certain opinions to avoid being …

I recently published a review article on how social norms regulating the expression of prejudice change. I guess we will be seeing many of these mechanisms in action in the near future.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Our research on Need for Chaos was focused on how some voters wanted to watch the world burn: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

With DOGE it now seems to be official government strategy from Trump & Musk

But the goal seems the same: Burning down existing structures for selfish status gain

Wir haben gestern lange darüber gesprochen was wir tun würden wenn Autoritäre und Faschisten die Macht übernehmen. Behält man Stellen in Bürokratie und Wissenschaft, wandert man aus, wie würde man Widerstand organisieren? Als Deutscher kennt man diese Fragen. Man hat sie häufig rückblickend ... 1/

Wir bei zweitstimme.org haben in den letzten Tagen über 20.000 Menschen gefragt, was Sie denken, wie die Wahl ausgeht. Und auch, was sie erwarten, wer ihren Walkreis gewinnt. zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/c... #citizenforecasting #btw25

This is super interesting!

Do citizens stereotype Muslims as inherently homophobic?

In a new @bjpols.bsky.social paper w/ @bertous.bsky.social & @michaelhunklinger.bsky.social we answer this question using a double-list experiment across 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🇳🇱

doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Spoiler: Yes. 🧵

Ok, thread time.

Closed-ended survey responses are efficient and easy to analyze, but limit what respondents can say. Open-ended responses are useful for letting respondents answer with more depth in their own words (as opposed to yours).

Herzlichen Glückwunsch!

29. Januar 2025

Der Tag beginnt im Bundestag damit, dass man der Shoah gedenkt und er endet damit, dass Nazis jubeln.

In #Germany, a watershed moment: Just hours after commemorating the Holocaust, the centre-right has accepted the support of the #farright #AfD to pass a (largely symbolic) motion against immigration, tearing a massive hole into the so-called 'firewall', Germany's variety of the cordon sanitaire.

Thanks Abby! I‘ll keep you posted!

I’m working on a paper trying to do this (esp. symbolic ID and Schwartz values). I didn‘t yet run RI-CLPM. CLPM find reciprocal effects, including 2-lags renders many effects insignificant (esp. values -> ID), however. Data structure is complicated, but happy to share when I got more results.

Gender and retention patterns among U.S. faculty Women faculty are more likely to leave their jobs than men, most often due to workplace climate, rather than work-life balance.

“Women leave or consider leaving [faculty positions] because of workplace climate more often than work-life balance.” www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...