Matt Fletcher

See also: “I agree, but that feels like a 2026 problem”

It is now being seen as quite possible that this winter's flu - called super flu by some - may end up peaking below the levels seen in 2022-23 and 2024- 25.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...

So good they had to change the scale!

Same here - at this stage it feels it’s more likely to be a few weeks earlier than usual rather than an off-the-scale problem. Obviously still worth people taking precautions etc!

Flu picking up earlier than usual, and following a heavy flu season in Australia in our summer.

An absolute goldmine of health and mortality data 📊

Well done to all involved in this.

The CMI has released its latest mortality monitor covering the period up to 25 July.

Death rates year-to-date are the lowest ever seen, though only slightly lower than 2019 and 2024.

In particularly, death rates have been notably lower than 2024 (the previous best year) for the last few weeks.

New report on recent trends in mortality in England out today fingertips.phe.org.uk/documents/re...

I have heard a number of different terms being used to refer to weight loss drugs both in the press and by clients. I thought it would be useful to build a weight loss drugs dictionary. Are there any other terms that people commonly use or hear that should be added to the list?

Just “death’s door” would do it?

Shared this with my Dad (who you might remember) - he enjoyed it very much!

This despite (probably) more deaths from the end of 2024 in the January 2025 figures than the equivalent for 2023/24?

Obviously the correct answer is “somewhere between the two”

We were here 5 years before and we’re still here 5 years after…

There’s something a bit odd going on with the “age 30” figures from ONS (table 5 in their spreadsheet) - for other ages the odds ratio plateaus after a certain length of time but for this age it keeps going up.

(Sort of) CMI-style projections from ONS!

The main difference is end-2022 vs start-2023 really isn’t it?

Excellent analysis of England & Wales mortality (as ever) by Jean - using data on deaths by occurrence rather than registration date suggests that death rates in both 2023 and 2024 were a bit better than it might seem

FWIW I’m inclined more towards the “half full” end - a return to pre-pandemic mortality levels feels like a pretty good outcome.

Glass half full: 2024 saw the lowest death rates ever!

Glass half empty: mortality improvements between 2019 and 2024 were basically zero…

Chart showing annual count of deaths in England & Wales, 2010 to 2024. It trends upwards (mostly due to population ageing).

Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.

For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.

Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.

12 hour waits in A&E in December were back at levels only previously seen in Dec '22 and Jan '23.

As the chart shows, it is extraordinary by historical standards to see so many people waiting this long for emergency care. And this is just counting the time after the decision to admit the patient.

Slightly longer commute than normal today!

Hospitalisations with flu are up sharply again this week, threatening a peak comparable to 2022/23 which contributed to huge pressure in hospitals.

*sighs*

Percentage change should *always* be expressed on a log scale, because it’s multiplicative.

A doubling and a halving should be given equal space.

I did a whole thread on this at the time x.com/jburnmurdoch...

Hard agree - I implemented this for a bunch of CMI charts in reports produced by my committee.

The Daily Mail Oncological Ontology Project Logging Daily Mail Cancer Bollocks

The Oncological Ontology Project - I’m pretty sure it went on past this but can’t find it at the moment… thedailymailoncologicalontologyproject.wordpress.com

Chalk another one up to “Everything causes and / or prevents cancer and / or circulatory disease”.

Hmm…

Looks like we are in for an early flu season this year.

If you're eligible for a flu vaccine (or want to pay for one) then now might be a good time to get one. It'll help protect yourself, and might help relieve extreme pressure on the NHS over Xmas, and in doing so help protect others.