Ruben Prütz

Global Carbon Budget 2025 Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to bette...

Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

The IEA's first net zero scenario (NZE), published in 2021, showed emissions peaking immediately and falling to net zero by 2050.

Today they published an update. Although we are behind on most things, solar and wind deployment moved EVEN FASTER than the first NZE suggested. A little ray of hope.

🚨🚨🚨 NEW REPORT ALERT 🚨🚨🚨
@climateanalytics.org has a new report out today that I’m really excited about. It’s all about 1.5ºC...

▶️ Is overshooting 1.5ºC inevitable?
▶️ Can we still get temperatures back below 1.5ºC?
▶️ If so, how?

If you’re interested in our findings, buckle up for a mega thread...

Today is the official launch of this year's @unep.org #EmissionsGap report.

It's title says it all

OFF TARGET

that's true for progress, NDCs and implementation

Something that's worth flagging about this report is the subtle pivot from "current policy" being the worst-case scenario to including discussions of backsliding. Most calculations presented include the USA meeting its new-but-Biden-era NDC commitments, which will formally elapse in Jan.

NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century.

The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵

To quote my friend @drkatemarvel.bsky.social, climate change won't make humanity extinct but we can do better than "not extinct". Raise your standards people!

European human rights court sets climate limits for the oil industry Greenpeace International 28 Oct 2025 • 2 min read • ©0 Comments Strasbourg - Today, The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) has ruled that Norway must assess the global climate impacts of oil and gas before opening new oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf in order to comply with the European Convention on Human Rights. The ruling establishes new, binding legal obligations that will reshape how governments approach fossil fuel development.

I can think of at least seven ways fossil fuel producers could wiggle out of this, but still: holy shit this is huge.

Overshoot podcast – a world beyond 1.5C The world missed its goal for tackling climate change. What happens next? In this four-part documentary series, we explore the huge challenges that come from 1.5°C overshoot. We meet the people with…

Recommended listen: The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, in partnership with Planet B Productions, has released a four-part podcast series exploring what will happen if global warming exceeds 1.5C.

A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage - Nature A risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins establishes a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 Gt of geological carbon storage, which requires making explicit ...

Our paper is out today in @nature.com where we assess a Prudent Planetary Limit for Geologic Carbon Storage:

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Here is a reminder that already last year 44 experts directed a powerful warning to policy makers about the risk of #AMOC shutdown. What more can we do to get heard?
It’s like the saying that every disaster movie starts with scientists warning and being ignored.

map of the Aegean coast depicting change in vapour pressure deficit due to climate change

One of the strongest, clearest increases in likelihood & intensity, attributable to climate change, I've seen in a complex index like fire weather - the more intense & frequent events in Greece & Türkiye are already outpacing efforts to adapt.
www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-cond...

Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims

NEW – Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org @leohickman.carbonbrief.org @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org

Read here: buff.ly/AvcB7Aw

Figure showing coal, oil, and gas emissions from 1960, with a little red dot for 2025, with 0.5% growth in coal, 1% in oil, 1.6% in gas, and -1.1% for cement. These are all leap year adjusted since 2024 had one more day than 2025...

Based on fossil fuel growth rates from the IEA Coal Mid-Year Update, July Oil Market Report, & Gas Market Report Q3, fossil CO2 emissions would grow around 0.8% in 2025, reaching another record high...

We are only half way through the year, but don't build too much expectation for peak emissions.

10/ 🔥Judge Iwasawa Yuji quotes straight from the IPCC: "Warming of 1.5°C is not considered 'safe' for most nations, communities, ecosystems and sectors, and poses significant risks to natural and human systems." - this is a very strong basis for the Court's legal conclusions!

⚠️Countries are taking large risks by relying so heavily on carbon dioxide removal to meet their climate goals.

Combined with inadequate near-term reductions, countries are potentially jeopardizing the Paris climate targets due to CDR, according to new research 🧵

💨The analysis, co-authored by Imperial scientists @rubenpruetz.bsky.social & @joerirogelj.bsky.social, finds substantial ambiguities in states' plans, with a heavy reliance and dependence on novel and conventional carbon dioxide removal, with its associated risks.

We need CDR. 🧩

But the ambiguity & lack of transparency regarding #CDR in states‘ climate plans jeopardize the PA. ❌

We unpack this issue by reviewing strategies of 70+ states concerning their CDR plans. 📑

👇 More in the thread by lead author Rupert Stuart-Smith & our study doi.org/10.1080/1469...

New research on limits to CO2 removal (CDR). CDR is key to our ambition to stop adding climate pollution to the atmosphere. Because it's uncertain how much will be delivered and it clearly comes with risks of social & environmental side-effects, legal issues arise. This paper provides an overview. 👇

Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal Achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhous...

Our new article is available open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@smithschool.ox.ac.uk @oxfordgeography.bsky.social @oxfordlawfac.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @granthamicl.bsky.social

Legal analysis, in conjunction with the risks associated with CDR-dependent targets assessed here, could clarify states’ mitigation obligations under international law and facilitate progression past a risk-blind and indiscriminate use of scientific pathways in assessing states’ targets. More soon!

That previous work was published in @science.org and can be found here: www.science.org/doi/full/10....

To minimise risks associated with reliance on CO2 removal, states should prioritise pathways that minimise overshoot and dependence on removals to reach net-zero. Risks associated with high CDR dependence might render state action inconsistent with norms and principles of international law.

-- Reliance on international cooperation to deliver CO2 removal (e.g. via carbon trading mechanisms) is also common in states' plans and amplifies these risks.

-- Non-delivery of planned CO2 removal would raise global temperatures further, worsening the impacts of climate change.

-- There is pervasive lack of transparency and ambiguities in states' international reporting, with respect to how states intend to meet their climate targets.

-- However, dependence on high levels of CO2 removal is widespread and substantial risks to delivery of planned CO2 removal exist.

-- Inadequate near-term emission reductions are common, jeopardise the Paris climate targets and create substantial long-term dependence on CO2 removal to eliminate a temperature overshoot, with its associated risks.

🚨 Out now in @climate-policy.bsky.social: New research with @thomwetzer.bsky.social @rubenpruetz.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social Lavanya Rajamani, Marianne Wood and Ewan White: States are depending heavily on CO2 removal to meet climate targets, risking the Paris Agreement goal.

#coal is on the way out and #solar is soaring, but wind is lagging behind.
Germany needs to
🎯 increase its target to Paris-compatibility
🎯 elevate climate policy to top of agenda
🎯 phase out fossil gas (not expand!)
🎯 focus on enabling a socially just transition

Analysis ➡️ bit.ly/CAT_GER

Its plans for energy, transport & buildings sectors are concerning, as is the intention to use #Article6 carbon credits. It wants to:
❌ build new fossil gas power plants, locking in emissions
❌ retract EV sales target & weaken compliance on EU emissions standards
❌ increase aviation subsidies

Supplying 60% of electricity, renewables expansion strong compared to other sectors & countries.
Germany has a well-developed climate policy framework & commitment to net zero by 2045, but target still not 1.5˚C compatible and new govt has no plans to increase action.
🔗 bit.ly/CAT_GER_poli...