Mike O'Brien

The Myth of Europe's Open Borders The continent has built a big, invisible wall. But this approach comes with enormous economic and moral risks, writes Jonathan Portes.

"Over the past decade, the continent has built a big, largely invisible fortress—one that carries enormous economic and moral risks. "

Me in Time on European migration policy

time.com/7328851/euro...

Public concern about immigration remains unusually high and has not yet caught up with the reality of falling immigration. However, by the 2029 general election there will have been several years of low net migration. A sharp fall in immigration could impact Reform UK, who are currently leading opinion polls, especially if asylum seeker numbers also fall. However, a fall in net migration of 300,000 a year would increase the deficit by about £2o billion. The government are already having to make unpopular tax rises and spending cuts in the upcoming budget, but would have to make more if the deficit increases. A fall in international student numbers will put further pressure on universities that are struggling financially, especially the 22 universities expected to lose their sponsor license.

Reducing immigration will not necessarily increase the number of jobs available for British people as some employers are responding to tightening immigration rules by increasing outsourcing. Some job vacancies will become harder to fill, particularly in care homes. This will be even worse if a lot of people emigrate because they do not want to wait 10 years for ILR. Conclusion Net migration will fall very sharply in future years as a result of immigration restrictions brought in by both the current and the previous government. Furthermore, emigration will continue to increase, particularly of people with graduate visas. Any political benefit the government may gain from this fall in immigration could be jeopardised by the economic damage that it causes.

Hey, look where years of scapegoating immigrants and devising punitive immigration policies gets you…
Further into debt, collapsing universities, tax rises and spending cuts.
Prejudice and govt dishonesty have high price tags.
Slow hand clap to all those responsible.

Chris is right. Some of these (eg charging for medical appts) aren't cost cuts, but cost shifts. As I wrote here, there are no magic money trees: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/no-magic-m...

Stan Tracey and pals are cooking up a storm with Monk's material here

YouTube video by Professor Christina Pagel Main authoritarian things Trump has done since Wednesday - as of Fri 10th October

Last 2 days in Trump's America - mainly around suppressing dissent and attacking science.

All actions available on www.trumpactiontracker.info

www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGuv...

Professor Christina Pagel I'm Professor Christina Pagel at University College London. My research is in health systems. I'm passionate about science, public health, supporting diversity in the sciences, and protecting liberal ...

Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social has been documenting this administration's authoritarian actions on the Trump Action Tracker: www.trumpactiontracker.info

Now, Prof. Pagel is doing daily video updates of Trump's authoritarian (impeachable!) actions:
www.youtube.com/@ProfChristi...

Was good to have a serious conversation about the rise of fascism & the Brexit dynamics that have twisted our immigration system, as well as cowardice from our media & our leaders on migration.

No immigrant has ever sacked me, or cut my wages, or offshored my job, or closed my hospital, or stopped my mum's disability benefits, or crashed the economy.

Those things were all done by white English men who went to Oxford and wore a nice suit.

I’m watching and it’s astounding. We all knew something like this was going on - but the extent of it! While so many were suffering, dying, sunk into loneliness - a few were absolutely RAKING IT IN. The COVID health crisis was a very, very lucrative opportunity for some.

The Covid Contracts: Follow the Money review – a devastating picture of the biggest spending scandal ever This rigorous look at the Tories’ ‘VIP lane’ for PPE suppliers during Covid raises questions about the motivations of those involved – ones that are almost too disgusting to contemplate

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ The Guardian

“The Covid Contracts: Follow the Money review – a devastating picture of the biggest spending scandal ever”

www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...

Appalled to see this image of Donald Trump and the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein projected onto Windsor Castle.

Please... for the love of all that is good, do not share it on all your social media channels... because it simply wouldn't be done to remind the world of the association

Written by a doctor at St Thomas' Hospital, London after the Tommy Robinson march on 13/9.

Encountering the fascists outside Waterloo iandunt.substack.com/p/encounteri...

Personal note: went to (some) of the countermarch yesterday, and then watched TV coverage of both.

@sundersays.bsky.social is right that the far-right/racists on the main march are a (small) minority whose numbers are not growing.

It's the apparent paralysis of the majority that scares me. [1/n]

Hallelujah!

For there to be no comment from the government on Musk's call for violence, let alone action against X, is unconscionable. An utter dereliction of its responsibility for national security and an affront to every member of an ethnic minority, who is being put at risk by this rhetoric.

Scale of 'Unite the Kingdom' march shows free speech 'alive and well' in UK, says minister - UK politics live Peter Kyle said he was not 'disturbed' by huge Tommy Robinson-organised far-right protest but condemns violence against the police

Every decent politician should be ‘disturbed’ by Tommy Robinson’s fascist march in London and Musk’s calls for violence on our streets.
Every decent politician should stop claiming this horror is an expression of ‘free speech’.
It’s vicious, racist incitement.
DO something about it.

A fantastic speech against the madness in Gaza from the Israeli conductor Ilan Volkov. He's speaking up for our shared humanity here. Against what's being done to innocents on both sides. But the Palestinians and Jews who want peace there are not powerful enough to stop it. They all need our help.

152. "A War on Children": A Generation in Gaza at Risk (James Elder) - Alastair Campbell Why is the humanitarian situation in Gaza the worst that James Elder has ever seen? What does the process of rebuilding Gaza look like? How do the people working on the ground not lose hope?  UNICEF s...

New @therestpolitics.bsky.social LEADING - however had you think things are in Gaza, they’re worse. We speak to James Elder from @unicef.org who has worked in crisis zones all his life and says he has never seen anything as bad we this “war on children”

alastaircampbell.org/2025/09/152-...

his February, the Centre for Policy Studies used OBR figures and ONS data to calculate the likely effect. More than two million people will qualify for ILR over the next four years. The CPS reckons 800,000 will settle, at a rate of 624 a day by 2028. At a conservative estimate the net cost to the Treasury over this cohort’s lifetimes will reach £234 billion, or £8,200 for each household in Britain.

Unpleasant, ignorant and error-ridden rubbish from Jenni Russell in the Times, arguing for the "remigration" agenda of Jenrick/Lowe

Below quotes nonsense numbers from the Centre for Policy studies that the CPS has itself admitted are fictional..

archive.ph/S6YuV

Tragic news to report - it didn't happen.
Trump looks alive & as nutso as ever at this White House briefing.

You know what that means, though?

He's still coming to the UK in just TWO WEEKS!!!! 😱😱😱😱😱😱
It's time to get organised.

BBC Sounds - Live at Scott's Jazz Club - Available Episodes Listen to the latest episodes of Live at Scott's Jazz Club on BBC Sounds.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand...

Some amazing live jazz from our local jazz club!

The real business here is moral. It's about the soul of the fucking country. If Labour needed to take damage in order to stand up for basic decency - for the shred of civilization that marks us out from beasts - then I would expect to see them fucking do it without the need for a self-serving argument to justify it.

What do politicians go into public service for? You’d hope - to act responsibly in the best interests of the country. Not to live in fear of the Daily Mail having a wettie. Honest to god, if you don’t speak out now, what’s the fucking point of you?

Labour's cowardice in the face of extremism iandunt.substack.com/p/labours-co...

Step back and take it in: the US is entering full authoritarian mode | Jonathan Freedland Trump’s dictator-like behaviour is so brazen, so blatant, that paradoxically, we discount it. But now it’s time to call it what it is, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland

The best piece I’ve read this year on Trump’s increasingly blatant lurch towards total power.

To quote Sinclair Lewis, if you think “it can’t happen here” you are just not paying attention.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Reform and the UK press It was entirely predictable that immigration/asylum would become the issue voters thought was the most important facing the country. Many p...

Y'days post: Reform and the UK press mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/refo...
The recent celebration by the Mail, Sun and Telegraph of someone who pleaded guilty to inciting racial hatred makes the Mail's “Hurrah for the Blackshirts” in the 1930s sound rather tame.

Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power Only good fortune has prevented previous governments from misusing our constitutional arrangements more than they did

Profoundly important from @davidallengreen.bsky.social. The lack of meaningful restraints against executing power in our system leaves us utterly exposed in the face of a Reform government. They could do whatever they want.

open.substack.com/pub/emptycit...

Britain Is Getting the Immigration Debate All Wrong There are worrying signs about the country's direction, as Reform tops the polls, and mainstream politicians chase the far right, writes Jonathan Portes.

The immigration debate is going badly off track, thanks to a combination of opportunism, racism and spinelessness in the UK's political and media class.

But it's not too late to turn things round.

Me in Time magazine

time.com/7312223/uk-i...

Interview with Joanna Hogg | TAKE ONE | Mike O'Brien spoke to filmmaker Joanna Hogg: “a daring and mischievous artist, and a major British talent whose next move will be intriguing.”

I believe this is the JH film Scorsese started with. He admitted he gave up, thinking it bleak English TV, but he tried again and it worked a spell on him.

from a few years back - takeonecinema.net/2016/intervi...

An interview I sat in on (as I recorded the audio). JH was prepping The Souvenir.

Poor Fraser Nelson.

As punishment for having done more than anyone else in UK media to mainstream far-right racism in UK politics, the gods have condemned him to write endless handwringing "liberal" columns in the Times bemoaning the consequences.

archive.ph/fNsP6