Lars Peder Haga

This is an intelligent approach. Fear and confusion are way too often mentioned as the desired effects of "grey-zone" or "hybrid" actions. They can however only be means to reach desired outcomes, by distracting us from what is at stake or coercing us from taking action.

Important thread on the state of Russian civil aviation after sanctions and under heavy GPS (self-)jamming. TL/DR: It is extremely unsafe.

Since it's in the wind with the footage of the Ropucha-class LST Aleksandr Shabalin:

Only a handful of Russian warships tend to transmit on AIS and these few only do so very occasionally.

Most never transmit and have never done so. Ropucha's are in this group.

Sentinel 3 image showing aircraft contrails off the west and east coasts of Novaya Zemlya adjacent to Zone C

Sentinel 3 image showing aircraft contrails of an orbiting aircraft off the east coast

Sentinel 3 image showing aircraft contrails of an orbiting aircraft off the east coast

This morning, there has been significant air activity visible off the east and west coasts of Novaya Zemlya over a number of hours with Sentinel 3.
Contrails from orbiting/maneuvering aircraft are clearly visible.
I cannot say a Burevestnik test is occurring, but this is what I'd expect to see.

forgotten. (Norwegian autocorrect)

I guess it became the normal so fast that it is almost forfoten.

7/7 Very important disclaimer: we don't know yet if this is the beginning of a lasting presence of the type, or if it was something else.

6/7 If this is the beginning of a more or less permanent deployment of Mig-31BM to Kaliningrad, it signals an ambition to create a more comprehensive air defense system there. And at the same time a weakening of the AD system in the Arctic.

5/7 The Mig-31BM is sort of a one-trick pony. A long-range, high speed air defense fighter originally designed to fill gaps between strategic air defense systems. It is regularly used as an escort for long-range aviation in the High North.

4/7 In addition, the paint behind the text VKS ROSSII on the tail appears smudged, as if it has been hastily repainted. The planes of the 98. would until recently have "MA VMF ROSSII" painted there, so that makes sense.

3/7 The 98. Is based in Monchegorsk on the Kola peninsula, and geographical proximity and common operational area (Kaliningrad is in Leningrad MDs AO) alone make the 98. The most likely culprit.

2/7 One is the 22. Fighter regiment in the Eastern Military District. The other is the 98. Mixed aviation regiment that recently was transferred from the Northern Fleet to Leningrad Military District.

One of the Russian Mig-31BM Foxhounds that recently violated Estonian airspace. There are white air-to-air missiles under the wing. A large, grey boxy fighter plane. The number 67 is painted on the nose in blue. Under the red star on the rear vertical stabilizer "VKS ROSSII" is written in cyrillic letters. The grey paint behind the lettering appears smudged.

1/7 The Mig-31BM Foxhound in the picture published by @forsvarsmakten.se on the other place has tail nr Blue 67. According to my records, blue 67 has been used by two different Russian units:

Screenshot of flight route of USAF RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV "Forte 10". The track appears in the Suwalki gap and goes North through the Baltic States. It crosses the gulf of Finland, hugs the Finnish-Russian border and does a racetrack there before crossing into Norway near Utsjoki. The track then goes North along the Nordkinn peninsula and turns West when it reaches the ocean. It does another racetrack over the sea between Andøya and Lopphavet before returning. PS am I the only one who thinks it is hilarious that Flightradar uses a quadrotor drone icon for a Global Hawk?

It self-identified as USAF on Flightradar

Possibly related to continuing Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile trials?

Article on likely imminent test of Russia's Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, with a little contribution from me.

bsky.app/profile/lars...

Must read on AI-generated satellite imagery, how to spot it and what to do.

3/3 Russia's few A-50Us are frequently forward deployed. It is possible none were present at Ivanovo at the time of attack, or the Ukrainian drone operators failed to find them, and they went for these as plan B. If they were the primary target, it was a questionable use of resources.

Screenshot from Google Earth, history layer, dated 082015. 9 A-50 and two Il-76 (or possibly A-50s with their radomes removed) aircraft on a hardstand. The two in the upper left corner are in the same place as the two A-50s visible in the SBU video.

2/3 They are also parked in the same spot where they have been visible in Google Earth since 2015. These are parts donors, aircraft slated for upgrading to A-50U standard, or perhaps just waiting to be scrapped.

1/3 SBU released footage from the attack on Ivanovo. As noted by others before me, the attacked airframes lack engines and frankly look like sh*t.

AI-generated picture of wreckage of four Tu-95 bombers.

This picture is making rounds now. It is obviously an AI-generated fake or for "illustrative purposes". My understanding is it originated in Ukrainian media. Using Gen AI like this destroys credibility and is really unhelpful.

5/5 I don't have any traffic data for the R-21, but the population of the Kola peninsula North of Olenyegorsk is something like 400 000. I guess that takes som trucks in addition to the railway to supply. And now also to check for drones.

Screenshot from Google maps showing the R-21 from Monchegorsk to Murmansk, through Olenegorsk

4/5 There really aren't any practical detours that will take heavy vehicles around Olenyegorsk in a "drone-safe" distance on the way to Murmansk.

Screenshot from Google maps, showing the approximate position of the launcher truck relative to the apron on Olenya air base. A distance ruler between them shows 6,42 km. The ruler crosses the E-105 highway - the same as the Russian R-21.

3/5 Monchegorskoye Shosse runs in parallell with R-21, the main route from St. Petersburg to Murmansk.

2/5The gas station is the Podsolnukh on Monchegorskoye Shosse, about 6,5 kms from the apron on Olenya.

maps.app.goo.gl/qoByBVVkdiRE...

1/5 Good points. The truck that launched the one-way-attack small UAS towards Olenya stood a little to the North of this gas station:

Your key takeaway from the brilliant Ukraine attack with small drones into Russia shouldn’t be “wow, small drones make it so easy to score huge hits,” it should be “wow, Ukrainians are insanely good at covertly planning and executing extraordinarily difficult missions of which drones are one part”.

This is a very good overview of the bases hit and their current role in Russian long-range aviation. It is particularly useful as the war has seen rather drastic changes in basing of different units, so if your standard-sources for this are from pre-2022, they are outdated. bsky.app/profile/lars...

If the SBU wants me to write the history book on op Pavutyna, I am available from mid 2026. 😂