Lars Peder Haga

Must read on AI-generated satellite imagery, how to spot it and what to do.

3/3 Russia's few A-50Us are frequently forward deployed. It is possible none were present at Ivanovo at the time of attack, or the Ukrainian drone operators failed to find them, and they went for these as plan B. If they were the primary target, it was a questionable use of resources.

Screenshot from Google Earth, history layer, dated 082015. 9 A-50 and two Il-76 (or possibly A-50s with their radomes removed) aircraft on a hardstand. The two in the upper left corner are in the same place as the two A-50s visible in the SBU video.

2/3 They are also parked in the same spot where they have been visible in Google Earth since 2015. These are parts donors, aircraft slated for upgrading to A-50U standard, or perhaps just waiting to be scrapped.

1/3 SBU released footage from the attack on Ivanovo. As noted by others before me, the attacked airframes lack engines and frankly look like sh*t.

AI-generated picture of wreckage of four Tu-95 bombers.

This picture is making rounds now. It is obviously an AI-generated fake or for "illustrative purposes". My understanding is it originated in Ukrainian media. Using Gen AI like this destroys credibility and is really unhelpful.

5/5 I don't have any traffic data for the R-21, but the population of the Kola peninsula North of Olenyegorsk is something like 400 000. I guess that takes som trucks in addition to the railway to supply. And now also to check for drones.

Screenshot from Google maps showing the R-21 from Monchegorsk to Murmansk, through Olenegorsk

4/5 There really aren't any practical detours that will take heavy vehicles around Olenyegorsk in a "drone-safe" distance on the way to Murmansk.

Screenshot from Google maps, showing the approximate position of the launcher truck relative to the apron on Olenya air base. A distance ruler between them shows 6,42 km. The ruler crosses the E-105 highway - the same as the Russian R-21.

3/5 Monchegorskoye Shosse runs in parallell with R-21, the main route from St. Petersburg to Murmansk.

2/5The gas station is the Podsolnukh on Monchegorskoye Shosse, about 6,5 kms from the apron on Olenya.

maps.app.goo.gl/qoByBVVkdiRE...

1/5 Good points. The truck that launched the one-way-attack small UAS towards Olenya stood a little to the North of this gas station:

Your key takeaway from the brilliant Ukraine attack with small drones into Russia shouldn’t be “wow, small drones make it so easy to score huge hits,” it should be “wow, Ukrainians are insanely good at covertly planning and executing extraordinarily difficult missions of which drones are one part”.

This is a very good overview of the bases hit and their current role in Russian long-range aviation. It is particularly useful as the war has seen rather drastic changes in basing of different units, so if your standard-sources for this are from pre-2022, they are outdated. bsky.app/profile/lars...

If the SBU wants me to write the history book on op Pavutyna, I am available from mid 2026. 😂

I honestly struggle to come up with a historical comparison. Destroying strategic assets that difficult to impossible to replace has been done, daring special forces raids have been done, and striking airbases to great effect has been done, all of which are hard to do, but to combine all three?

They seem to be reasonable aimpoints (fuel tanks) for top attacks with small warheads. But of course we see here what the SBU wants us to see. 🙂

FWIW the Russian MOD indeed reports a failed "terrorist" attack on a military air base in Amur oblast, i.e. Ukrainka.

10/10 It must also be a huge morale boost for the Ukrainian population to see that they are able to strike back at Russian assets that regularly do substantial damage, and seemed "untouchable" due to distance.

9/10 In conclusion, this was not an attack on "some bombers" but on the whole system of Russian strategic aviation. Pending BDA, but the result will likely be a real degradation of Russia's ability to launch cruise missiles into Ukraine.

8/10 Dyagilevo is Russian Strategic Aviation's training centre. It is also home to Russia's only air-to-air refueling regiment. Russia has few tankers, as they have of all enablers, and they are prioritized to Strategic aviation.

7/10 Ivanovo-Severny is home to Russia's airborne warning and control aircraft. Russia has few of these aircraft, and have already suffered losses of them. In additon to supporting defensive Russian counter-air near Ukraine, they also support strategic aviation.

6/10 Belaya has also become a more or less permanent base for Tu-160 Blackjacks and Tu-95MS Bear-Hs since at least 2023. It is even more distant, and until today, safer, than Olenya. But it is closer to Ukraine and thus more practical than Ukrainka for dispersal.

5/10 Ukrainka is the main base of Russian strategic aviation in the Russian Far East. I have not seen any reports of attacks there today. The maps indicate it was at least considered for attack, perhaps unlike Engels. An attack may have failed, or it was not prioritized.

4/10 Engels is the main base of Russian strategic aviation in European Russia, and is conspicously absent from the maps. Neither was it attacked today. Its importance has waned as it became a target of Ukrainian attacks, being "only" 600kms from Ukrainian-controlled territory.

3/10 Olenya began replacing Engels air base as the main starting base for cruise missile attacks in late 2022. Engels was probably deemed vulnerable, or there may have been logistical or operational reasons. The dispersal of strategic bombers began before the first Ukrainian attacks on Engels.

2/10 Olenya and Belaya are bomber bases. At the beginning of the full-scale war home only to Tu-22M3 Backfire cruise missile carriers/bombers on a permanent basis. Olenya used to be a dispersal base/transit base for Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-160 Blackjacks without permanent presence of these types.

1/10 On the map, clockwise from top (as we see it): Olenya, Murmansk oblast, Ivanovo-Severny, Ivanovo oblast, Ukrainka, Amur oblast, Belaya, Irkutsk oblast, Dyagilevo, Ryazan oblast. All of them except Ukrainka have reportedly been attacked today by Ukrainian small one-way attack UAS. 🧵

A bell and ship control marked with things like full, half, forward, backward and stop

Tidens Tegn newspaper from 1940 reporting on the government rejecting a German ultimatum

A wartime poster with a rugged sailor next to a line of ships and the caption 'Norway, a fighting ally'

A grey ship with a red stripe and rusty anchors, docked at Leith

Thanks to a @threadinburgh.scot tipoff we had a morning trip to D/S Hestmanden and it was such a fascinating, absorbing experience, go see it before it leaves 🫡🇳🇴

An array of TV screens with aerial imagery projected on them. Allegedly from the inside of a Forpost control station.

6/6 My best guess is that the containers are ground control stations for UAVs, probably Forpost. I have been looking for reference imagery, without success. The best i could find was this interior shot from a propaganda clip.

Screenshot form Google Earth, summer 2023. The construction of a new, fenced pad is finished, and four white containers are placed on it. In the upper right corner of the large pad in the top part of the picture the outline of a Forpost UAV can be seen.

5/6 Summer 2023, the pad is ready, surrounded by a double fence, and the white containers are placed inside. In the North East corner of the "old" pad, the outline of a Forpost UAV is visible.

Screenshot from Google Earth, August 2022. In the lower right corner rectangular concrete elements are being laid out to create a pad. There seemsto be gabions and a double fence on three sides of the pad. Directly to the northwest of the pad are four white, rectangular containers, each approximately 10 meters long.

4/6 In the summer of 2022, there is something going on to the South of the concrete pad in the South-Eastern corner of the runway. A new pad is being built from elements. Note four white containers between the old and new pads.