Stephen Semler

Trump as the US military builds up in the Middle East for war against Iran: "We have peace in the Middle East"

UK blocking Trump from using RAF bases for strikes on Iran The disagreement over the use of British sites is behind the US president’s withdrawal of support for the Chagos Islands deal, The Times understands

"The Times understands that the UK is yet to give permission for the US to use the bases in the event that Trump orders a strike on Iran, owing to concerns that it would be a breach of international law."

This is a BIG deal given the US-UK military relationship.

www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

A military attack on another country is called a war; saying it's just a military 'confrontation' or a 'calibrated strike' diminishes the severity of the act, regardless of whether it leads to region-wide conflict.

Something to keep in mind in the non-debates on Iran.

NB: cost of borrowing money has dramatically increased since 2021 and it’s not counted toward CPI.

bsky.app/profile/step...

If you admire the IDF like Stevens, you admire ICE.

It’s not true. That’s why it’s political poison

It wasn’t just the child tax credit.

And it’s not just the Republicans.

Most voters are non-ideological. So when they're asked whether a candidate's "too far left" / "too progressive" they're being forced evaluate a candidate through a lens they don't view politics through.

With Latest Rollback, the U.S. Essentially Has No Clean-Car Rules

“The U.S. no longer has emission standards of any meaning,” said Margo T. Oge, who served as the E.P.A.’s top vehicle emissions regulator under three presidents and has since advised both automakers and environmental groups…

“Nothing. Zero,” she added. “Not many countries have zero.”

not the only one he's dogwalking today lol bsky.app/profile/step...

This chart doesn’t account for number of hours worked (which have declined), non-wage income, or how CPI is based on the spending habits of higher income people.

Line graph that shows a blue line of # protests since Trump's 2nd inauguration surpassed, showing these to have exceeded 42k by the end of Jan 2026. A green line counts # of protests during the same time period in Trump's first term and just exceeds 10k.

Overall, we have tallied 4x more protests through Jan 31, 2026 than we had through Jan 31, 2018

Map showing tens of thousands of protests across the US between Trump's inauguration last year and January 31, 2026.

The volume & geographic distribution of protest nationwide during year 1 of Trump's second term was extraordinary.

My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) has shared a big data update, covering all recorded US protests through Jan 2026. Some key takeaways 🧵:

Stephen datamogging Bill Pencil once again

It wasn’t just the child tax credit.

And it’s not just the Republicans.

What matters most is running on issues they care about. Cost of living was easily voters top concern in 2024.

Trump mentioned cost of living in 75% of his campaign ads.

Harris mentioned cost of living in 39% of her campaign ads.

What matters most is running on issues they care about. Cost of living was easily voters top concern in 2024.

Trump mentioned cost of living in 75% of his campaign ads.

Harris mentioned cost of living in 39% of her campaign ads.

Most voters are non-ideological. So when they're asked whether a candidate's "too far left" / "too progressive" they're being forced evaluate a candidate through a lens they don't view politics through.

This chart doesn’t account for number of hours worked (which have declined), non-wage income, or how CPI is based on the spending habits of higher income people.

And he's not right! It's all steadily getting worse!

bsky.app/profile/step...

I didn’t say “didn’t exist.”

My initial claim was “main reason”

If you’re going to debate me, do so in good faith.

I didn’t say “didn’t exist.”

My initial claim was “main reason”

If you’re going to debate me, do so in good faith.

How and why police actually support the federal invasions—I have been working on this article for ~6 months, trying to make sense of Trump’s nationwide surge of DHS officers, how it has evolved, what brought us here, and what will remain after it ends.

The welfare expansion that Biden promised to make permanent:

From 2021-24:

Poverty: +65%
Child poverty: +158%
Difficulty paying bills: +25%
Overdraft/NSF fees: +46%
Food insecurity: +38%

sources: Census Bureau, CFPB, USDA

Autor* Dube* and McGrew don’t take into account number of hours worked, nor change in non-wage income of lower-income people.

A deeply flawed study.

The authors also don’t tailor their CPI indices to income, as Matt wrongly implies here.