@stephensemler.bsky.social
Policy analyst/advisor. Newsletter: stephensemler.com
Not to state the obvious, but if voters had no problem affording increasingly high costs, they wouldn’t rank it as their top concern. But since they do, they do.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
bsky.app/profile/step...
05.12.2025 18:18 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Affordability has topped voter concerns since mid-2022. Issues voters ranked as most important, 2021 to 2025. “Inflation/prices” has remained the most popular response every month since July 2022. Figures are monthly averages. Data: YouGov. “Inflation/prices” became an option in July 2022. Issues shown are the six most popular selections on average from January 2021 to November 2025. Other issues listed: “jobs, economy” “civil rights/liberties” “health care” “immigration” “climate, environment.”
Both parties had taken turns embracing the politically poisonous "vibecession" narrative, and losing because of it (Democrats in 2024, GOP in 2025).
After voters punished them for it, both parties now (begrudgingly) acknowledge the affordability crisis.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
bsky.app/profile/step...
05.12.2025 18:18 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Affordability has topped voter concerns since mid-2022. Issues voters ranked as most important, 2021 to 2025. “Inflation/prices” has remained the most popular response every month since July 2022. Figures are monthly averages. Data: YouGov. “Inflation/prices” became an option in July 2022. Issues shown are the six most popular selections on average from January 2021 to November 2025. Other issues listed: “jobs, economy” “civil rights/liberties” “health care” “immigration” “climate, environment.”
Both parties had taken turns embracing the politically poisonous "vibecession" narrative, and losing because of it (Democrats in 2024, GOP in 2025).
After voters punished them for it, both parties now (begrudgingly) acknowledge the affordability crisis.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
Voters only think the costs on the receipt they're holding have gone up because Tiktok/vibes/Chinese propaganda
04.12.2025 22:51 — 👍 13 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0Nor could that boat, before it was bombed, reach the United States. That’s important because it refutes the laughable claim of “imminence” necessary to wrap the strikes under the auspices of a lawful armed conflict.
04.12.2025 18:46 — 👍 1750 🔁 409 💬 16 📌 8"Maximum lethality, not tepid legality"
The U.S. Secretary of Defense boasting mere days after the start of the maritime killing spree.
For some reason, the administration's claims that its boat strikes are lawful are not particularly convincing.
www.war.gov/News/News-St...
Hell yeah
04.12.2025 21:30 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Semlerism>Stancilism
04.12.2025 21:15 — 👍 32 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 0someone do a wellness check on billy pencils
04.12.2025 21:19 — 👍 13 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0what the fuck is up Will Stancil
04.12.2025 21:16 — 👍 182 🔁 19 💬 9 📌 0
Affordability has topped voter concerns since mid-2022. Issues voters ranked as most important, 2021 to 2025. “Inflation/prices” has remained the most popular response every month since July 2022. Figures are monthly averages. Data: YouGov. “Inflation/prices” became an option in July 2022. Issues shown are the six most popular selections on average from January 2021 to November 2025. Other issues listed: “jobs, economy” “civil rights/liberties” “health care” “immigration” “climate, environment.”
The affordability crisis has suddenly taken over headlines. It’s about time: Voters have ranked it as their top concern for the last 41 consecutive months.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
Both parties had taken turns embracing the toxic “vibecession” narrative — and losing because of it (Democrats in 2024, GOP in 2025).
Now’s the first time both parties acknowledge there’s a crisis at the same time.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
For the affordability crisis to finally be recognized as a crisis, voters had to
1) punish incumbents who dismissed economic insecurity as just bad “vibes”
2) support candidates running on an affordability agenda. Namely, @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social had to win
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
Voters definitely punished them for it.
Trump called the affordability crisis a “con job” (again) on Tuesday, but GOP reps/senators have already acknowledged the reality of it, and committed to addressing it (unconvincingly, in my opinion, but that’s besides the point)
After taking turns denying its existence, Democrats and Republicans now recognize the existence of the affordability crisis at the same time. I think this marks the beginning of the end of the indiscriminately toxic “vibecession” narrative. The smart vibes guys will hedge their past takes (Krugman already has) or move on to something else. The dumb vibes guys won’t see the writing on the wall — they’ve got that special kind of antisocial arrogance, the type that leads one to conclude, All these women at this Whole Foods must be too shy to ask for my phone number, so I guess I’ll just start yelling it.
There are two types of vibes guys, and I’m not sure he’s the first type I mention in the article
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
Does Will Stancil still think it’s all fake
04.12.2025 16:39 — 👍 43 🔁 2 💬 6 📌 0The reality of this makes me completely crazy.
It was so obvious that both Biden (when actually visible and audible), and then Harris, ran the wrong campaign. It's really hard for people to forgive the Dems is Washington for all of that.
For the affordability crisis to finally be recognized as a crisis, voters had to
1) punish incumbents who dismissed economic insecurity as just bad “vibes”
2) support candidates running on an affordability agenda. Namely, @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social had to win
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
Both parties had taken turns embracing the toxic “vibecession” narrative — and losing because of it (Democrats in 2024, GOP in 2025).
Now’s the first time both parties acknowledge there’s a crisis at the same time.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
Not to state the obvious, but if voters had no problem affording increasingly high costs, they wouldn’t rank it as their top concern. But since they do, they do.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
Affordability has topped voter concerns since mid-2022. Issues voters ranked as most important, 2021 to 2025. “Inflation/prices” has remained the most popular response every month since July 2022. Figures are monthly averages. Data: YouGov. “Inflation/prices” became an option in July 2022. Issues shown are the six most popular selections on average from January 2021 to November 2025. Other issues listed: “jobs, economy” “civil rights/liberties” “health care” “immigration” “climate, environment.”
The affordability crisis has suddenly taken over headlines. It’s about time: Voters have ranked it as their top concern for the last 41 consecutive months.
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-afford...
@stephensemler.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/stephens...
The Pope left Beirut a couple of hours ago and there are already reports of Israeli drones flying low over parts of the city.
02.12.2025 14:33 — 👍 20 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 15 - the Syrian people overthrew a tyrant and Israel saw it as such a threat they bombed around the country & invaded it. They have disappeared people from s. Syria
International reaction is basically to shrug.
bsky.app/profile/alju...
Red circle on a map
Red circle on a map
Israel announced that they will bomb two villages in Southern Lebanon
That’s how they do it. They tell you that they will violate the ceasefire for the thousandth time, and there will be no consequences.
This debate so often boils down to whether we believe people when they say that they're struggling. Many economists don't.
01.12.2025 15:58 — 👍 22 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0
