Lars Kreckel

Since the heydays of the euro crisis

And will Treasuries stay the risk free rate?

- Current message: Surprisingly, no signs of extreme bullishness in the data; non-commercial positions are net short.

- The bad: Overall, few reliable signals, limited history, and inconsistent performance.

- The future: CFTC data may cover the wrong type of investor, but this can change as crypto matures.

- What is it: Similar to my FX Sentiment Heatmap, I analyse CFTC positioning data for Bitcoin across investor groups, including net long positions and their percentage of open interest.

- The good: Speculative net long positions have occasionally acted as contrarian indicators.

Bitcoin Sentiment and CFTC Positioning Not all Sentiment Indicators are created equal, Part 8

Bitcoin above $100k, but CFTC positioning data shows little bullishness. These indicators have been poor predictors of returns. I rate them 0.5 out of 3.

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macroequity.substack.com/p/bitcoin-se...

You supposed to buy low, sell high 😂

Not one of my TopTier indicators, but it has a decent track record. Equities have performed worst when consumers have been most bullish.

Americans are more bullish on equities than ever, which has historically been bad news for future returns. I rate this indicator 1.5 out of 3.

Go deeper
macroequity.substack.com/p/super-bull...

The base line for sell-side 12 months index targets is 10%, which is exactly where these are at. So average bullishness.