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Third Thoughts

@thirdthoughts.bsky.social

Ex-academic political scientist/theorist.πŸ³οΈβ€βš§οΈ rights are human rights. Nuance > Hot Takes. Youtube vids on political history and philosophy. Em dash user from the Before Times. YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThirdThoughtsYT

727 Followers  |  171 Following  |  4,467 Posts  |  Joined: 18.10.2023  |  2.2503

Latest posts by thirdthoughts.bsky.social on Bluesky

I'm not sure its entirely feasible given the private enterprise element, though I agree. My compromise would be mandatory Americorps with extensions. Including the requirement that they experience applying for benefits while paying their own rent.

Not sure how to handle parent $$ though.

12.02.2026 13:15 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Cartel drone is apparently the right-wing DHS thug version of UFO.

Sorry fuckos, its just a foil balloon in the wind.

12.02.2026 12:52 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I've suspected this was the dynamic for a while. Because all you need to know is that there are always party planners for the very rich - just look at the toxic elements of LA Hollywood-adjacent parties.

The question was really just about how organized he and Ghislaine were. Vileness was assumed.

12.02.2026 12:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Calling them "Gatsby figures" is an excellent reference from Will. That's exactly what they are, and a big part of the book. Loose financial regulation breeds an ecosystem of frauds looking to capitalize on wealthy people who like to gamble and have so many assets that they can't go broke.

12.02.2026 12:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

β€œI know a guy who can massively beat the market” no you don’t

β€œI know a guy who can make you ten years younger” no you don’t

β€œI know a guy who is an erudite lover of philosophy and physics and math, and genius investor but also a great time at parties with lots of girls” no you don’t

12.02.2026 12:37 β€” πŸ‘ 298    πŸ” 30    πŸ’¬ 12    πŸ“Œ 0

InfantryDort has entered his Zakalwe impersonation phase

12.02.2026 00:28 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Chart showing a staggering jump in habeas petitions in US court in January, far outpacing all other types of cases.

Chart showing a staggering jump in habeas petitions in US court in January, far outpacing all other types of cases.

NEW: ICE is crashing the US court system in Minnesota. Thanks to Trump's push to detain an unprecedented number of people, and its attempt to kill bond hearings, petitions to secure people's release from custody have skyrocketed. @regret.bsky.social w/ the scoop: www.wired.com/story/ice-cr...

11.02.2026 21:26 β€” πŸ‘ 259    πŸ” 121    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 12

Hot take: I think Zakalwe might be the least interesting problematic character in The Culture. What makes the books so interesting, to me, is the way people *raised in* luxury gay space communism nevertheless find ways to be miserable misanthropes. Zakalwe, raised outside, was too obvious.

10.02.2026 16:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'll be sure to alert the committee and my Game Theory prof ;)

10.02.2026 16:27 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Didn't know that was what it was called (I'm PE not E so some gaps) but after a quick Google... yeah, that's roughly what I had in mind.

10.02.2026 16:25 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I.e., there's a crowding on the firm-level planning, which leads to a skew in estimates of near-term future aggregate demand. When the real demand fails to match those estimates you get unemployment.

Hence why Keynesian policies work - they correct the reverse expectation of demand collapse.

10.02.2026 16:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

In theory, you'd expect that to be counterbalance by under-hiring at some firms. But that assumes randomly distributed information biases, and per Shiller etc. we know the biases crowd and the bigger problem is time horizon mismatch.

So unemployment becomes a time horizon market failure...

10.02.2026 16:18 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

There's a little bit of chicken-egg problem here, though, if we assume the reason the market is a generally efficient distribution mechanism is due to aggregate information effects from diverse actors.

Individual unemployment can be due to poor firm planning and cyclical over-hiring.

10.02.2026 16:18 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Takes like this are so dumb. Y'all need to watch Game of Thrones and actually understand it. Varys was always right.

"Power resides where people *believe* it resides. It's a trick, a shadow on the wall."

10.02.2026 16:14 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I blame the stupid virgin gangbang meme. Never would've known before bluesky and I was happier not knowing tbqh.

10.02.2026 16:08 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

... that doesn't mean online mutual aid is a good answer. Or that we should assume people regularly posting gofundmes are legit.

For that matter, our system is so shit that legitimate ones are literally risking their benefits if they have regularly successful campaigns.

10.02.2026 00:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

My little sister is on SSI and I've been with her for the whole process. I did the HR work for a new hire on SSDI and a tiny org at my last job and was very careful about schedule and pay rates to keep her under the caps.

I'm quite familiar with how horrendous our system is...

10.02.2026 00:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Emphasis on the "like clockwork" part. Online mutual aid is OK for occasional supplemental projects and emergencies. But it is not a viable modern supplement to state social insurance, family and friend connections, etc. And it is trivially easy to be a grifter in the space.

10.02.2026 00:35 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
It Turns Out That When Waymos Are Stumped, They Get Intervention From Workers in the Philippines During a Congressional hearing, Waymo's chief safety officer, Mauricio PeΓ±a, was grilled over the company's reliance on overseas workers.

honestly, i'm not surprised by this? and, in fact, having an algo go "oh hey an edge case? Im gonna ask for human intervention" is good, actually futurism.com/advanced-tra...

09.02.2026 21:16 β€” πŸ‘ 130    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 4

Very useful thread if you want to actually understand US-Soviet history. The discussion with John is especially illuminating.

08.02.2026 19:48 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

There were 3 things going on simultaneously, that both communist hunters and communists want to conflate.

1) quest for actual Communist spies working for the Soviets
2) quest to purge certain sectors of society (like Hollywood) of Communists and fellow travelers supposedly corrupting society...

07.02.2026 23:12 β€” πŸ‘ 105    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

[googling] fuck i have got my terminology wrong

bsky.app/profile/john...

07.02.2026 23:09 β€” πŸ‘ 97    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

anyway ICE cars are sighted nonstop, abductions continue at a high rate, and school absenteeism remains about 50% as tens of thousands of families remain in hiding. the city is being economically flattened. aftermath I guess

08.02.2026 19:41 β€” πŸ‘ 760    πŸ” 84    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2

Also, like, Schmitt is writing about the Weimar Republic, a famously competent and well-established regime with absolutely no other problems whatsoever.

07.02.2026 18:02 β€” πŸ‘ 21    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

A little odd to say that, admittedly, given his time at the Bank under Stiglitz, etc. I have a similar temperament but probably a thinner skin, which may explain it. I dunno.

Anyway his arguments aren't always obvious to a lot of people, and are often orthogonal to the mainstream conversation.

07.02.2026 17:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

He's an interesting but also odd guy. We interacted a bit at UCSD, I interviewed him a little about his time at the Bank, etc. He's extremely principled, and knows the right people, but is also an older autistic guy who cares more about getting things right than networking, I think.

07.02.2026 17:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I their defense on that one, he was quite good at *saying no* to whatever he wanted.

But that's a big difference to doing anything positive.

07.02.2026 15:15 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Saw someone say about Democrats that β€œI just don't accept "we don't have the votes" anymore. Get creative. Just do things. β€œ

… I am not doing free PR for Dems but literally do people know what a minority is

07.02.2026 12:44 β€” πŸ‘ 374    πŸ” 30    πŸ’¬ 39    πŸ“Œ 20

The Indiana state senators who killed redistricting probably saved a couple GOP seats

07.02.2026 13:43 β€” πŸ‘ 26    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

Why aren’t the Demsβ€”

07.02.2026 14:18 β€” πŸ‘ 22    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

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