Zach Glaser's Avatar

Zach Glaser

@ziglaser.bsky.social

Climate PhD student at Caltech. Listless young adult and blogger. ziglaser.substack.com

158 Followers  |  194 Following  |  139 Posts  |  Joined: 08.04.2025  |  2.1537

Latest posts by ziglaser.bsky.social on Bluesky

People saying stuff like this are cranks, and almost as far outside the scientific mainstream as climate deniers

Under the SSP2-4.5 "middle road" scenario (which imo is a bit pessimistic) we expect warming of 1.4-3 deg C by 2100 (IPCC AR6)

Corresponding sea level rise of less than a meter

23.09.2025 18:52 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Doesn't matter if you have the same preferences as others ranking your slate, since your 0.5 vote getting tied up frees, say, 0.001 votes from 500 co-partisans to your mutual next choice

But if your slate differs (like voters ranking the partial labor slate + Schneider) order really matters

22.09.2025 01:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It has meaningful strategic ramifications, since most of your vote will get eaten up by the first candidate your ballot counts for, even if they were likely to win anyways

22.09.2025 01:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Might be worth adding to the multi-winner section that your ballot will only wind up counting for one vote (even if it's spread fractionally between candidates)

Seems to surprise most people I talk to

22.09.2025 01:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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US appeals court orders deportation of Atlanta journalist detained by Ice Mario Guevara faces imminent removal from US as his attorney files emergency petition

With the news cycle focused on ABC's suspension of Jimmy Kimmel, a journalist with a valid US work permit and pending green card application is about to be deported for the crime of reporting www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

19.09.2025 18:25 β€” πŸ‘ 590    πŸ” 367    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 3

The centrally discussed Gaza genocide is the perfect example. Israeli politicians won't cite *genetics* of Palestinians to justify oppression, rather political, demographic, or military necessity

What enables the genocide among Israeli citizens is closer to apathy than even that level of racism!

31.08.2025 05:56 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Buried under the racism apologia, an important dynamic slips under the radar, which is a kind of denial of "banal evil" on PF Jung's part.

JD Vance would say he doesn't hate immigrants, he just thinks they're making our country unsafe. Sincere or not, that still leads to genuine contemporary evils

31.08.2025 05:56 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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John Roberts Is Responsible For America’s Embarrassing Gerrymandering Mess In Rucho, the conservatives worried about courts answering hypothetical questions that might be hard. All they did is prevent courts from answering very questions that are not.

Rucho still is one of the stupidest Supreme Court decisions of my lifetime, and it is impossible to watch Texas and California’s ruthless redistricting arms race without remembering John Roberts being like, β€œWell, how could we, humble jurists, ever KNOW know if gerrymanders go Too Far To Be Legal??”

21.08.2025 16:24 β€” πŸ‘ 630    πŸ” 142    πŸ’¬ 26    πŸ“Œ 11

Democratic theory and experiment have come a long way in the last 250 years. Single-member districts are terminally flawed and undermine the fundamental democratic notion of "one person, one vote"

(states and municipalities can implement w/o constitutional amendments, even congressional districts!)

18.08.2025 02:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: DFL Challenge Hearing in regards to Minneapolis Convention. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting. Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: DFL Challenge Hearing in regards to Minneapolis Convention. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.

Found it: dfl.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

17.08.2025 13:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Minnesota DFL CBRC Welcome to the committee

You can sign up for emails here: www.dflcbrc.org/welcome

I just didl, but I fear it's too late. Strangely no info about the meeting exists on the website schedule

17.08.2025 13:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

even if we characterize it as liberal, that makes it an outlier for the time. In my understanding, most liberation taking place post-World War II was through the lens of nationalism. Totally agree that has proven a short-sighted model leading to bad results, but worth grappling with its successes

17.08.2025 01:58 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Was it? Like, I’m not sure that’s how I’d characterize the defeat of the Nazis by the collection of allied powers including the USSR. Either way, I just think the lessons are just not transferable to self-governance, even tho many try

17.08.2025 01:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The statement "Jews lived through the Holocaust, and therefore they (we) have a special obligation to fight the genocide of other communities" is a statement that is at best problematic, if not outright antisemitic, when said by non-Jews, but is also foundational to my own sense of Jewish ethics.

17.08.2025 00:29 β€” πŸ‘ 121    πŸ” 32    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 3

Given this campaign has way less demagoguery about antisemitism, this feels a little more awkward than β€œJews for Zohran”

Just has a bit of β€œWhite Guys for Kamala” energy

16.08.2025 18:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Frankenstein's Voting System the single transferable vote is genius, but walking subcaucuses are cooler

The final installment of my series on my April precinct caucus.

What can go wrong when a former Park Board President hijacks the delegate selection process to avoid walking subcaucuses? What lessons can we take away about proportional representation?

12.08.2025 15:06 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

There's a bizarre fusion in my head between "We Love Minneapolis" and "No Kings" that makes me think and say "We Love Kings" day whenever I'm trying to discuss the protest

11.08.2025 17:51 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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U.S. Military Is Preparing to Deploy National Guard in D.C., Official Says

I feel like such a boiled frog. My first reaction to this is "well, it looks they won't be doing much" and that's probably true!

Feels insane how "federal troops are occupying DC" would be end times 10yrs ago, but now `\_(:/)_/`. Obviously not the straw that breaks the camel's back.

11.08.2025 14:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Critical support to anyone doing data-driven modeling and analysis of local Minneapolis elections 🫑

10.08.2025 02:22 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

What’s mind bending about this pile-on is that the people I know (and publicly) most excited about LLMs are math/CS/tech people. There are valid arguments that they’re in too deep leading to hype, but to insist they’re technologically illiterate is bizarre

Classic competence/morality conflation

09.08.2025 22:27 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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New PAC in Minneapolis: Thrive Mpls (Updated August 2025) Thrive Mpls is a new PAC in Minneapolis ahead of the November election after We Love Mpls ceased operating. Its chair is Martha Holton Dimick, who unsuccessfully ran against Mary Moriarty for Hennepin...

thrive mpls a zoom meeting for their supporters a few days ago and we were inside. i've added the full slideshow to my blog post, but wanted to highlight a few things - taylordahlin.com/f/new-pac-in...

08.08.2025 01:12 β€” πŸ‘ 101    πŸ” 35    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 12
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In fact, the research group cited in the article--Opportunity Insights--elsewhere conclude that standardized tests are less biased against low-income students than almost any other aspect of "holistic admissions"

07.08.2025 20:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Fascinating data illiteracy

While abolishing Affirmative Action and ignoring demographics certainly reduces representation of underserved groups, this graph shows the exact opposite of headline's claim of GPA and test score bias: much of the bias in admissions comes *when holding test scores equal*

07.08.2025 20:55 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

If you understand the problems with the way the state of Israel rhetorically wields the memory of the Holocaust, then you understand the danger in exceptionalizing any one atrocity in human history, no matter how horrible, as the β€œworst ever.”

07.08.2025 03:40 β€” πŸ‘ 38    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Lamentations On mourning Tisha B'Av during genocide in Gaza

I wrote about the overwhelming feelings of despair that permeate this Tisha B'Av for me.

What does it mean to share the guilt of enabling Israel with my community, even as many do not recognize the reality of genocide in Gaza?

03.08.2025 22:29 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I went from sobbing at the most recent RadioLab to crying laughing at this. @taylr.bsky.social's deadpan commentary and John's recycling of Plowy McPlowface one-liners as the police trucks advanced was hysterical.

I'm particularly emotionally labile today as I'm fasting for Tisha B'Av, so ymmv.

03.08.2025 20:35 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

I was SO confused where the smoke was coming from during Totoro, and now I'm angry with myself for not having gone to investigate

02.08.2025 03:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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My Big Beautiful Road Trip week one

I'm on the road, making a huge nation-circling trip before heading off to grad school at @caltech.edu this fall. If you want to follow my travels, I'm writing about them here:

31.07.2025 19:51 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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ward 7 CM katie cashman has filed! fittingly, she was the 7th candidate to file!! adam schneider also filed for parks at large

@katiecashman.bsky.social @adamformplsparks.bsky.social

29.07.2025 19:12 β€” πŸ‘ 48    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 3

During Pride I was very concerned about the impending simultaneous outbreak of clear weather, storms, and a heat wave

27.07.2025 20:59 β€” πŸ‘ 39    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

@ziglaser is following 19 prominent accounts