People saying stuff like this are cranks, and almost as far outside the scientific mainstream as climate deniers
Under the SSP2-4.5 "middle road" scenario (which imo is a bit pessimistic) we expect warming of 1.4-3 deg C by 2100 (IPCC AR6)
Corresponding sea level rise of less than a meter
23.09.2025 18:52 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Doesn't matter if you have the same preferences as others ranking your slate, since your 0.5 vote getting tied up frees, say, 0.001 votes from 500 co-partisans to your mutual next choice
But if your slate differs (like voters ranking the partial labor slate + Schneider) order really matters
22.09.2025 01:33 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
It has meaningful strategic ramifications, since most of your vote will get eaten up by the first candidate your ballot counts for, even if they were likely to win anyways
22.09.2025 01:33 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Might be worth adding to the multi-winner section that your ballot will only wind up counting for one vote (even if it's spread fractionally between candidates)
Seems to surprise most people I talk to
22.09.2025 01:33 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
US appeals court orders deportation of Atlanta journalist detained by Ice
Mario Guevara faces imminent removal from US as his attorney files emergency petition
With the news cycle focused on ABC's suspension of Jimmy Kimmel, a journalist with a valid US work permit and pending green card application is about to be deported for the crime of reporting www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
19.09.2025 18:25 β π 590 π 367 π¬ 6 π 3
The centrally discussed Gaza genocide is the perfect example. Israeli politicians won't cite *genetics* of Palestinians to justify oppression, rather political, demographic, or military necessity
What enables the genocide among Israeli citizens is closer to apathy than even that level of racism!
31.08.2025 05:56 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Buried under the racism apologia, an important dynamic slips under the radar, which is a kind of denial of "banal evil" on PF Jung's part.
JD Vance would say he doesn't hate immigrants, he just thinks they're making our country unsafe. Sincere or not, that still leads to genuine contemporary evils
31.08.2025 05:56 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
John Roberts Is Responsible For Americaβs Embarrassing Gerrymandering Mess
In Rucho, the conservatives worried about courts answering hypothetical questions that might be hard. All they did is prevent courts from answering very questions that are not.
Rucho still is one of the stupidest Supreme Court decisions of my lifetime, and it is impossible to watch Texas and Californiaβs ruthless redistricting arms race without remembering John Roberts being like, βWell, how could we, humble jurists, ever KNOW know if gerrymanders go Too Far To Be Legal??β
21.08.2025 16:24 β π 630 π 142 π¬ 26 π 11
Democratic theory and experiment have come a long way in the last 250 years. Single-member districts are terminally flawed and undermine the fundamental democratic notion of "one person, one vote"
(states and municipalities can implement w/o constitutional amendments, even congressional districts!)
18.08.2025 02:08 β π 2 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Minnesota DFL CBRC
Welcome to the committee
You can sign up for emails here: www.dflcbrc.org/welcome
I just didl, but I fear it's too late. Strangely no info about the meeting exists on the website schedule
17.08.2025 13:48 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
even if we characterize it as liberal, that makes it an outlier for the time. In my understanding, most liberation taking place post-World War II was through the lens of nationalism. Totally agree that has proven a short-sighted model leading to bad results, but worth grappling with its successes
17.08.2025 01:58 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Was it? Like, Iβm not sure thatβs how Iβd characterize the defeat of the Nazis by the collection of allied powers including the USSR. Either way, I just think the lessons are just not transferable to self-governance, even tho many try
17.08.2025 01:58 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
The statement "Jews lived through the Holocaust, and therefore they (we) have a special obligation to fight the genocide of other communities" is a statement that is at best problematic, if not outright antisemitic, when said by non-Jews, but is also foundational to my own sense of Jewish ethics.
17.08.2025 00:29 β π 121 π 32 π¬ 7 π 3
Given this campaign has way less demagoguery about antisemitism, this feels a little more awkward than βJews for Zohranβ
Just has a bit of βWhite Guys for Kamalaβ energy
16.08.2025 18:40 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Frankenstein's Voting System
the single transferable vote is genius, but walking subcaucuses are cooler
The final installment of my series on my April precinct caucus.
What can go wrong when a former Park Board President hijacks the delegate selection process to avoid walking subcaucuses? What lessons can we take away about proportional representation?
12.08.2025 15:06 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
There's a bizarre fusion in my head between "We Love Minneapolis" and "No Kings" that makes me think and say "We Love Kings" day whenever I'm trying to discuss the protest
11.08.2025 17:51 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
U.S. Military Is Preparing to Deploy National Guard in D.C., Official Says
I feel like such a boiled frog. My first reaction to this is "well, it looks they won't be doing much" and that's probably true!
Feels insane how "federal troops are occupying DC" would be end times 10yrs ago, but now `\_(:/)_/`. Obviously not the straw that breaks the camel's back.
11.08.2025 14:46 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Critical support to anyone doing data-driven modeling and analysis of local Minneapolis elections π«‘
10.08.2025 02:22 β π 4 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Whatβs mind bending about this pile-on is that the people I know (and publicly) most excited about LLMs are math/CS/tech people. There are valid arguments that theyβre in too deep leading to hype, but to insist theyβre technologically illiterate is bizarre
Classic competence/morality conflation
09.08.2025 22:27 β π 9 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
In fact, the research group cited in the article--Opportunity Insights--elsewhere conclude that standardized tests are less biased against low-income students than almost any other aspect of "holistic admissions"
07.08.2025 20:55 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Fascinating data illiteracy
While abolishing Affirmative Action and ignoring demographics certainly reduces representation of underserved groups, this graph shows the exact opposite of headline's claim of GPA and test score bias: much of the bias in admissions comes *when holding test scores equal*
07.08.2025 20:55 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
If you understand the problems with the way the state of Israel rhetorically wields the memory of the Holocaust, then you understand the danger in exceptionalizing any one atrocity in human history, no matter how horrible, as the βworst ever.β
07.08.2025 03:40 β π 38 π 5 π¬ 1 π 0
Lamentations
On mourning Tisha B'Av during genocide in Gaza
I wrote about the overwhelming feelings of despair that permeate this Tisha B'Av for me.
What does it mean to share the guilt of enabling Israel with my community, even as many do not recognize the reality of genocide in Gaza?
03.08.2025 22:29 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
I went from sobbing at the most recent RadioLab to crying laughing at this. @taylr.bsky.social's deadpan commentary and John's recycling of Plowy McPlowface one-liners as the police trucks advanced was hysterical.
I'm particularly emotionally labile today as I'm fasting for Tisha B'Av, so ymmv.
03.08.2025 20:35 β π 9 π 1 π¬ 0 π 1
I was SO confused where the smoke was coming from during Totoro, and now I'm angry with myself for not having gone to investigate
02.08.2025 03:15 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
My Big Beautiful Road Trip
week one
I'm on the road, making a huge nation-circling trip before heading off to grad school at @caltech.edu this fall. If you want to follow my travels, I'm writing about them here:
31.07.2025 19:51 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
During Pride I was very concerned about the impending simultaneous outbreak of clear weather, storms, and a heat wave
27.07.2025 20:59 β π 39 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0
Algorithmist
https://moultano.wordpress.com/
They/She π³οΈβπ
Northside Candidate for Minneapolis Park Board AT-LARGE
Election Day is November 4th, 2025
AmberFrederick.com
Senior meteorological scientist at @windbornewx.bsky.social & web developer
Polymath, web pioneer, former πΊ critic, βΎοΈ fan, SF fan, fanfic & fanvid fan, disabled, grey-ace, Minnesotan. Masked & vaxxed. Tired. (She/her)
Widow as of 11/12/24 π
Contact, links, help: https://linktr.ee/LaurelKrahn
Sports talk: wintwins.bsky.social
Sr. Contracts Mgr @first-avenue.com, Music Photographer, Record Slinger @electricfetusmpls.bsky.social + mama. All posts = mine.
http://www.stacyannschwartz.com or StaciaannPhotoMPLS on Etsy to purchase
Climate scientist, professor of Physics of the Oceans in Potsdam. Opinions my own.
making radio @mprnews. words a bunch of places. cancer survivor.
the sea advances insensibly in silence, nothing seems to happen, nothing moves, the water is so far off you hardly hear it.. yet it finally surrounds the resistant substance.
Sustainability advocate. Climate champion. Community organizer. Running to be one of your next at-large Minneapolis Park & Recreation Board members.
U.S. Senator from Connecticut.
Canine dad, former lobbyist, government geek, husband, North Minneapolis.
--> dewayneforminneapolis.com <--
π³οΈβπβ€οΈπ§‘ππππππ²βοΈπΈπ₯βοΈπ³οΈββ§οΈ β‘οΈπβ‘οΈ
Homelessness is our societal failure. It's fixable if we really try. He/him/his
Minneapolitan. Occasionally lawyerly. Union member and supporter. LGBTQIA+ supporter. She/her.
PFP alt text: a pale woman with red hair sips from a straw in a cup. Her hair is in a high side pony, and sheβs wearing goldy gopher sunglasses.
actor + improviser + sorry about the birds
Vhagar of fandom.
audreyii_fic on most sites.
professionally nosy. reporter at @minnesotareformer.com covering labor, mostly. board member for the Minnesota Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists.
my name is june - she/her - evil transsexual disinfo influencer
i am a host on the kill the computer podcast and the ill conceived podcast:
- www.killthecomputer.com
- https://www.illconceivedpodcast.com
a reputable journalist at @theonion.com
More good things for everyone. Public sector appreciator. Tax and welfare policy knower. Hyperinflation doubter.
jon
https://www.patreon.com/c/SecretBase
https://www.youtube.com/SecretBaseSBN