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David Firth

@firthstat.bsky.social

Research in #statistics, University of Warwick. https://warwick.ac.uk/dfirth Also @firthstat@fediscience.org (Mastodon) Current main interest is compositional data analysis. Programming in #rstats

634 Followers  |  355 Following  |  43 Posts  |  Joined: 21.03.2024  |  1.9839

Latest posts by firthstat.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Keir Starmer hits out at the "wild promises" made about Brexit Labour continues to seek closer ties with the EU and is aiming to make a deal to rejoin the Erasmus scheme within weeks

@pimlicat: "The PM is saying what Brits have known for years, that Brexit was sold to them on false promises.

Young people have been at the sharp end of a Brexit they didn't vote for, which has taken away freedoms that other generations took for granted."
https://bit.ly/48MjK3J

02.12.2025 17:16 β€” πŸ‘ 224    πŸ” 70    πŸ’¬ 18    πŸ“Œ 2
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Great culture can save lives. Literally.

Amazing letter in today’s @thetimes.com about Tom Stoppard

02.12.2025 08:48 β€” πŸ‘ 11814    πŸ” 4065    πŸ’¬ 146    πŸ“Œ 452

This cross-pollination IS how new ideas happen. EVERY field needs humanistic thinking, that's why they call PhDs "Doctors of Philosophy"

02.12.2025 11:38 β€” πŸ‘ 1892    πŸ” 556    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 9
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Populist Right: 'We're not racist, we just want immigrants to integrate & contribute.'
Immigrant gains BA, MA, works for charities, marries a 'Brit', becomes Brexit-supporting, lockdown-sceptic Tory MP, then Deputy Speaker of HoC.
Populist Right: 'People born abroad shouldn't be allowed to do this.'

28.11.2025 19:10 β€” πŸ‘ 312    πŸ” 149    πŸ’¬ 17    πŸ“Œ 4
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Former Brexit Party MEP denies taking payment from pro-Russian campaign A prominent former MEP for Nigel Farage's old party denies taking bribes in a pro-Russian campaign.

β€œSpeaking outside his chateau in France…”
I kid you not.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

28.11.2025 16:11 β€” πŸ‘ 2358    πŸ” 772    πŸ’¬ 133    πŸ“Œ 35
John Fox: Books and Software

#rstats
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca

28.11.2025 15:26 β€” πŸ‘ 198    πŸ” 66    πŸ’¬ 13    πŸ“Œ 10

Come and join the @significancemag.bsky.social editorial board!

27.11.2025 18:07 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Michael Gove Made Orwell Prize Judge Despite Record of Attacking Journalists and Dodging Scrutiny Critics say "Orwell would have enjoyed the irony" of the former Conservative minister's appointment

I’m a past winner of the Orwell Prize & won partly because I exposed Vote Leave’s unlawful activities.

Michael Gove was its co-convener & refused to answer a single q. He’s now a judge of the prize & our world is truly one that Orwell would recognise

bylinetimes.com/2025/11/25/m...

25.11.2025 17:53 β€” πŸ‘ 2732    πŸ” 1143    πŸ’¬ 95    πŸ“Œ 64

I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.

They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as β€œthe most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1

25.11.2025 09:26 β€” πŸ‘ 10083    πŸ” 5141    πŸ’¬ 337    πŸ“Œ 694
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Overseas-trained doctors leaving the UK in record numbers Medical bodies warn that hostility towards migrants is behind a 26% rise in departures last year that imperils NHS

Overseas-trained doctors leaving the UK in record numbers.

Direct result of racism and insecurity unleashed by major political parties.

Not enough home trained doctors. Takes years and high debt to become a doctor.

A healthcare crisis in the making.

22.11.2025 08:04 β€” πŸ‘ 447    πŸ” 231    πŸ’¬ 27    πŸ“Œ 18
Data sets in the heplots package

#rstats Some packages include many datasets to illustrate the methods they provide, like my {heplots} and
{vcdExtra} pkgs.
I devised a scheme, using `@concept` tags to classify them according to the methods.
Perhaps this is useful to others

I describe what I did in this vignette: bit.ly/4oalgBd

21.11.2025 17:29 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It is indisputable that Brexit has been an economic disaster, and notable that none of its political architects have paid any price.

21.11.2025 10:15 β€” πŸ‘ 641    πŸ” 232    πŸ’¬ 26    πŸ“Œ 6

Literally incredible

18.11.2025 19:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Reporter to MBS: "U.S. intelligence concluded that you orchestrated the brutal murder of a journalist..."

Trump: "Fake news...He's done a phenomenal job. You're mentioning someone who was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about…things happen."

18.11.2025 17:55 β€” πŸ‘ 413    πŸ” 179    πŸ’¬ 109    πŸ“Œ 85

Tl;dr - if Labour want to combat racism, they should say racism is wrong, over and over, and act on that belief (e.g. by leaving certain social media sites owned by racists). That would do more to promote anti-racist norms, and protect the interests of Britain's minorities than immigration controls.

18.11.2025 10:28 β€” πŸ‘ 203    πŸ” 70    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 7
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Bhramar Mukherjee to give keynote at RSS 2026 Conference

Thrilled that Prof. Bhramar Mukherjee will give a keynote at the 2026 RSS International Conference in Bournemouth!

A leading voice in biostats and data science, Bhramar’s work on genetic/environmental data integration and COVID-19 has shaped the field.

More details πŸ‘‰ rss.org.uk/news-publica...

18.11.2025 10:48 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Image of high mountain of waste with brook lapping against it - and waste floating in the brook.

Image of high mountain of waste with brook lapping against it - and waste floating in the brook.

Image of high mountain of waste with brook lapping against it - and waste floating in the brook.

Image of high mountain of waste with brook lapping against it - and waste floating in the brook.

Image of mouth of brook into River Cherwell showing collection of waste and scum on water.

Image of mouth of brook into River Cherwell showing collection of waste and scum on water.

The contaminated waste piled high in a field near Kidlington is now washing into River Cherwell. In the last 48 hours, the water level has risen 4+ feet and is lapping against the illegal dump.

We stand on the edge of an environmental disaster. We need urgent action from the Environment Agency.

16.11.2025 18:51 β€” πŸ‘ 44    πŸ” 32    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 9

Yay science!

16.11.2025 19:06 β€” πŸ‘ 76    πŸ” 21    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 3

What is "bayes" here? (what prior? what interval construction?)

16.11.2025 11:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Assistant Professor x2 (104176-1125) - University of Warwick Title: Assistant Professor x2 (104176-1125). Application Deadline: . Position Type: Permanent

Two assistant prof. vacancies at Warwick Statistics: warwick-careers.tal.net/vx/appcentre... (deadline 25 January 2025 at 11:55pm). CSML applications very welcome!

14.11.2025 21:01 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The BBC was right about the Capitol riots. In a sane world, Trump would be in jail The US President faced impeachment over the violence, and in a world where Republicans had more courage, he would have been found guilty

The BBC is apologising for its Panorama edit. It shouldn’t. First, the narrative is true: Donald Trump *did* incite the Capitol riot. Second, the apology won’t appease those attacking it. So why not at least stand for something?

Wrote this on it earlier this week:
inews.co.uk/news/world/b...

09.11.2025 07:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1556    πŸ” 448    πŸ’¬ 54    πŸ“Œ 21

"Getting Franklin’s story right is crucial, because she has become a role model for women going into science. She was up against not just the routine sexism of the day, but also more subtle forms embedded in science β€” some of which are still present today."

#R4Today

08.11.2025 07:33 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...

"There is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the 'Boriswave'. Recent migrants are very likely to be employed, paying tax and seem to be contributing to British society..it will help, rather than hurt, Britain’s fiscal position."

Analysis by @lgilbert.co

ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

06.11.2025 16:00 β€” πŸ‘ 192    πŸ” 87    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 5

It's genuinely worth a quick check of the advanced moderation settings as there's plenty I'm sure people would like to tweak but aren't aware that they can.

06.11.2025 08:00 β€” πŸ‘ 74    πŸ” 63    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 0

Compulsory team teaching on every module is perhaps the biggest ever threat to the quality of teaching in UK universities.

It causes chaos on the ground for timetabling, ruins course coherence and turns lecturers into permanent supply teachers. It is pedagogically incoherent… 1/

06.11.2025 06:57 β€” πŸ‘ 140    πŸ” 49    πŸ’¬ 12    πŸ“Œ 13
expert reaction to study looking at steps in one long walk vs in multiple short walks, and cardiovascular health | Science Media Centre

That paper that was reported as saying you should stop taking short walks vs fewer long ones has been bothering me and the excellent Kevin McConway has written up a fair and thorough explanation of why: www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
tl;dr really hard to get causal out of observational

03.11.2025 08:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Highly deprived neighbourhoods concentrated in the north of England
Proportion of neighbourhoods in each English local authority that are highly deprived
0% 0 0-10% 010-20% 020-30% β€’>30%
Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Note: Highly deprived neighbourhoods are in the most deprived 10% across England

Highly deprived neighbourhoods concentrated in the north of England Proportion of neighbourhoods in each English local authority that are highly deprived 0% 0 0-10% 010-20% 020-30% β€’>30% Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Note: Highly deprived neighbourhoods are in the most deprived 10% across England

North-south divide on deprivation levels
Proportion of neighbourhoods in each English region that are highly deprived
North East
North West
Yorkshire and The Humber
West Midlands
East Midlands
London
South West
East of England
South East
21.5%
20.2%
18.5%
16%
8.2%
4%
3.9%
3.9%
3.3%
Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
BBC

North-south divide on deprivation levels Proportion of neighbourhoods in each English region that are highly deprived North East North West Yorkshire and The Humber West Midlands East Midlands London South West East of England South East 21.5% 20.2% 18.5% 16% 8.2% 4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.3% Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government BBC

Index of Multiple Deprivation shows highly deprived areas are concentrated in the North of England
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

31.10.2025 06:59 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 3

The generation that experienced WW2 knew how bad things could get. The horrors that they had directly experienced in Coventry, on Omaha, at Belsen, Bastogne, Dresden, Nanjing & Tokyo meant that they understood how dangerous THIS was. This is where all that started.

01.11.2025 11:35 β€” πŸ‘ 612    πŸ” 162    πŸ’¬ 14    πŸ“Œ 2
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Log In Welcome to the National Trust 2025 voting website, hosted by independent voting service provider Civica Election Services.

If you're a member of the National Trust remember to vote for council members by midnight tonight.

Use the Quick Vote option.

Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them

Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand

secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...

31.10.2025 14:19 β€” πŸ‘ 578    πŸ” 444    πŸ’¬ 72    πŸ“Œ 34
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πŸ‘ "There are over four million kids in child poverty in the UK and there are four and a half million people who can't get a dentist appointment."

"We spend 90% of the political capital and discourse and media focus discussing 37,000 people."

31.10.2025 15:05 β€” πŸ‘ 285    πŸ” 88    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 6

@firthstat is following 20 prominent accounts