Adam Levine

Now with complete trade data for June, the average tariff rate was 10.3%. There were $3.3 trillion in U.S. imports last year, and a 10.3% tariff on that is a $336 billion tax on U.S. importers.

When we got it, my wife literally handed to me in a silver platter.

OMG, they finally released guidance for all the country-tariffs, just 3 days before they take effect. Pour one out for your poor local customs broker.

content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...

I have long been fascinated by the fact that you could buy a house from the Sears Catalog. Can’t say that about Amazon.

@dicknixon.bsky.social grew up in one and you can see it at the Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda CA

www.searshouses.com

Give us back Toledo you thieving bastards.

Visits from Asia (9.2m in 2024) Feb-Jun down 4.4%. China (1.6m in 2024) -4.5%, -8% in Jun

Visits from Canada (20m 2024) Feb-May (no Jun data yet) -19%. -26% in May

I think Vegas’ problems are mostly Canadian

www.trade.gov/i-94-arrival...

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The longer I live, the less I know.

June PCE Inflation:

Durables: 0.47% MoM, a 5.7% annualized rate

But, vehicles/parts were -0.37% MoM, -4.4% annualized

If we pull out vehicles/parts, durable goods MoM inflation goes to 0.9%, 11.3% annualized rate.

Furniture, etc: 14% annualized
Rec goods: 12%
Home stuff: 17%
etc.

We should have a betting pool. I have 863.

Trump Will Remake the Fed. Lower Rates Are Just the Start. President Donald Trump wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a lot, quickly. He will get that, and probably much more, under the next Fed chair.

I’ve spent the last several weeks learning everything I can about what President Trump and his allies want from the new Fed chair. I put all that together in a cover story for Barron’s. It's not just rate cuts.

Tldr; Expect major disruption at the Fed. Staff cuts, model changes, polarization & more

The entire state of New Mexico is based on this premise and I approve

Now I see the fine print. I thought you were using NIPAs 5.4.6U

Here’s both series deflated by PPI New Office Building Construction. 2017 dollars

They have been since the pandemic.

free countries have gdp data line up well. partly free countries are only mediocre. not free countries are bad.

Here’s a graph from the Economist showing GDP data from official government sources versus private estimates.

Free countries, like the US, don’t manipulate econ data. Less free countries do. Trump is seeking to break that for short-term PR.

(Yes I know GDP is BEA and not BLS.)

We have a big crop of grapes coming this year.

It’s even worse than that because data center construction is part of the office category. These are nominal SAAR

Wall, SD
Hamer, SC
Mitchell, SD
Cawker City, KS

3 outs on 7 pitches

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Onuu...

Everything sucks, but on the other hand Coke is back at the Costco food court

This is what drove the large revisions to the CES jobs number for May and June. Education is almost more than half the revisions and also a big contribution from retail employment.

And now Alfred is down, so I may never know

I’ve always assumed the preliminary skews towards larger establishments

Honestly, there’s a lot of bad stuff going on, but today’s BLS crap made me more depressed than I’ve been in weeks.

Wagon

China Says US Exploited Old Microsoft Flaw to Wage Cyberattacks China accused the US of exploiting a flaw in Microsoft Corp.’s email servers to steal military data and launch cyberattacks on its defense sector.

Microsoft Exchange Server. Still a piece of shit, all these years later. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I can’t even

Omg it’s a real tariff rule for Canada. First one since the UK.

Still says 25% in the tariff schedule.