James Smyth

Blue Jays pitching as they get another chance to punch their ticket to the ALCS

Varland has 1 opener game this season, just a couple of weeks ago on Sept 25 vs Boston: 6 up/6 down to hand it to Eric Lauer, who pitched 3.1 hitless innings

Very busy last 2 games, but Domínguez & Hoffman are rested

Yankees pitching for another elimination game

Cam Schlittler coming off MLB's first 8+ IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 12+ K postseason game, but the Jays have MLB's highest AVG vs 97+ MPH pitches (.278), and they knocked him out early on Sept 5

The bullpen last night: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K

Yankees/Blue Jays ALDS Game 4 Lineups!

Yanks 16 runs in the last 2 games after 10 in the first 4 postseason games, alternating L-R throughout vs Jays bullpen game. Judge 3 HR off opener Varland. Vlad HR in all 3 ALDS games.

Pregame at 6 on YES, game at 7 on FS1, back over to YES for postgame

new @fangraphs.com: a look at the contrast between the bullpens of the Yankees and Blue Jays last night, as the Yankees staved off elimination. Via colleage @mattmartell.fangraphs.com, some excellent insight from Gerrit Cole regarding the times-through-the-order and repeat-reliever effects.

46 runs combined in the first 3 games of the Blue Jays/Yankees ALDS, the 2nd-most runs scored through the first 3 games of a postseason series

There were 48 runs in the first 3 games of the 2004 Yankees/Red Sox ALCS, and the first-4-games record is 65 in the 1993 Blue Jays/Phillies World Series

Pretty neat that the 0-2 comebacks (11%) almost exactly match the 1-in-8 odds for getting the same result on 3 straight coin flips. And the down 2-1 outcomes have pretty much the same 50/25/25 breakdown.

Yesterday's math with only 10 out of 90 comebacks from down 2-0 was daunting (11%), well that was step one

Heading into this October, there have been 102 MLB best-of-5 postseason series with a team down 2-1

52 knocked out in Game 4 (51%)
21 forced a Game 5 but lost (21%)
29 came back to win (28%)

MLB Postseason
Biggest Comeback Wins in Elimination Game
7 2008 ALCS Gm 5 BOS v TB
(7-0 in 7th to 8-7)
6 2012 NLDS Gm 5 STL a WAS
(6-0 in 4th to 9-7)
5 1995 ALDS Gm 4 SEA v NYY
(5-0 in 3rd to 11-8)
5 2002 WS Gm 6 ANA v SF
(5-0 in 7th to 6-5)
5 2025 ALDS Gm 3 NYY v TOR
(6-1 in 3rd to 9-6)

Yankees Biggest Comeback Wins in Postseason
6 1996 WS Gm 4 at ATL
(6-0 in 6th, won 8-6 in 10)
5 1997 ALDS Gm 1 vs CLE
(5-0 in 2nd, won 8-6)
5 2010 ALCS Gm 1 at TEX
(5-0 in 7th, won 6-5)
5 2025 ALDS Gm 3 vs TOR
(6-1 in 3rd, won 9-6)

Still alive! Jump over to YES for a jam-packed postgame show!

Devin Williams pitching in multiple innings for the first time since September 1, 2023

Wild note from @slangsonsports.bsky.social & @andrewsimonmlb.bsky.social

Judge's home run is MLB's first since at least 2008 (when pitch tracking started), that was off a pitch that fast and that far inside

on the Aaron Judge home run off the pole:

99.7 MPH is the fastest pitch he's ever hit for a homer

1.2 feet is the furthest-inside pitch he's ever hit for a homer

AARON JUDGE FOUL POLE

BONG

Max Fried & Carlos Rodón combined

2.97 ERA in the regular season
21.94 ERA in the ALDS (13 R in 5.1 IP)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the 3rd player to homer in his first 3 games of a postseason and do it against the Yankees (Juan Gonzalez 1996 Rangers in 1st 4 games of ALDS; Bengie Molina 2005 Angels in 1st 3 games of ALDS)

Blue Jays pitching heading into Game 3

Yankees pitching heading into Game 3

Yankees/Blue Jays ALDS Game 3 Lineups!

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step

Pregame at 7 on YES, game at 8 on FS1, back over to YES for postgame

If you wanna stretch the comparison, 2001 had the Jeter Flip Play and 2017 had Judge robbing Lindor of a home run

July vs Cubs (also did it earlier this year in May in Anaheim)

Yankees have come back from 0-2 in a best-of-5 twice: 2001 ALDS vs OAK & 2017 ALDS vs CLE

Game 3’s were similar

2001: Mussina 7 IP, 0 R; Posada HR off Zito; won 1-0

2017: Tanaka 7 IP, 0 R; Bird HR off Miller; won 1-0

The Trajekt Effect: How Technology Shifts the Game's Learning Curve | Baseball Prospectus How to gain a perpetual edge.

On the Trajekt stuff, @jrodrigues39.bsky.social had a great piece in August about how Trajekt teams have bigger OPS jumps on the first time through the order, and their home OPS on the third turn has the most significant jump www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Thought you were just summing it up, but no that’s literally what he said!

I can’t believe I got it. #Jaguars

Six Innings of Zeroes, Followed by Seven At-Bats of Mayhem: Dodgers on Verge of Sweep The two clubs followed a pair of near-perfect pitching performances with a manifestly imperfect bottom of the ninth.

Six Innings of Zeroes, Followed by Seven At-Bats of Mayhem: Dodgers on Verge of Sweep blogs.fangraphs.com/six-innings-...

Phillies on the brink: Star-studded Dodgers proving to be nightmare NLDS matchup

New column:

For 6 months, the Phillies' formula to win was simple

They had a better starting pitcher than you
Their stars were better than your stars
Their home-field advantage was better than your home-field advantage

Then the Dodgers came to town
www.nytimes.com/athletic/669...

Really? When I already sorta brought him up today?