James Smyth

3 runs or fewer means you probably lose, scoring 4 runs is a real toss-up, and 5+ means you probably win

2025 MLB Win Pct When Scoring Exactly…
6 Runs .748
5 Runs .660
4 Runs .511
3 Runs .409
2 Runs .255
1 Run .114

When you score 5+ runs, you usually win the game

Yankees have 54 games with 5+ runs (T-5th-most in MLB)

39-15 record (.722) is 5th-worst (MLB avg .799, or 4 games better than NYY)

And since July, only 10-8 when scoring 5+

Since July: 5th-most runs scored per gm but 3rd-most runs allowed per gm

The final DH domino has fallen.

Boone was asked if his confidence is wavering in Devin Williams: We have really good guys down there, Devin included, but we've gotta close out these games

Leaving the door open for a change?

Devin Williams ERA
First 10 Gm 11.25 (10/8.0)
Next 29 Gm 2.63 (8/27.1)
Last 7 Gm 7.71 (6/7.0)

Yankees in Extra Innings Since 2020
Home 29-14 Best in MLB
Road 13-28 Last in MLB ***
(2025: 3-1 at home & 0-6 on road)

Weaver, Doval & Bednar were perfect, but Williams gives up a tying homer in the 9th to .126-hitting Pederson, then Bird gives up a walk-off 3RHR to Jung in the 10th

Paul Goldschmidt leads off the night with his first HR since June 19. Snaps a 29-game homerless streak (tied for 2nd-longest of his career, 34 in 2012 & 29 in 2018 w ARZ)

With Grisham yesterday, 2nd time this year they hit leadoff HR in back-to-back games (Wells/Goldy in the first 2 games!)

Yankees gotta get straightened out on the road

First 34 G 21-13 (Best in MLB thru 6/12)
Last 22 G 5-17 (Worst in MLB since 6/13)

Yankees pitching as they start the Rangers series

Fried on an extra day of rest after a career-high 111 pitches in his win vs TB on Tuesday. Bullpen pretty well-rested with Headrick & Brubaker carrying the load yesterday.

Yankees/Rangers Lineups!

Forgot to post this, Rosario, Slater & Caballero get a start against the lefty. Rosario .307 AVG, .829 OPS this year vs LHP and is sitting on 999 career hits. Slater .500 SLG vs LHP this year (.825 OPS 135 OPS+). Judge tomorrow?

Game at 8 on YES, Pregame already under way

Watch video

New York Giants 🤖 reposted by SFGiants 🤖

Picnic or relay race next year? @SFGiants

Murry Dickson was a pitcher!

Trent Grisham’s 4th leadoff homer of the season

Yankees have 8 (also 1 for Wells/Goldschmidt/Rice/Domínguez), 3rd-most in MLB (Dodgers 11 mostly Ohtani & Angels 9 mostly Neto)

Judge, Bellinger & Grisham are 4th 20-HR teammate trio this year (Cubs/D-Backs/Mets)

Yankees pitching as they finish the Marlins series

Luis Gil is back. 75 pitches in his last rehab start (FB velo climbed each game, up to 95.8 after it was 96.6 last year)

Loáisiga to the IL with right mid-back tightness, so they're back to an 8-man 'pen

Yankees/Marlins Lineups!

Luis Gil makes his 2025 debut as the Marlins go for a sweep

Game at 1:30 on YES, BP/Pre at 12:30/1

[After leaving Progressive Field]
ME:
WIFE:
ME:
WIFE:
ME:
WIFE: Lot of Ramírez jerseys for a ga—
ME: A LOT of Ramírez jerseys for a game!

Eury Perez is A-OK off Tommy John

Eury Perez Since July (6 GS)
ERA 1.06
BAA .132
SLG .228
HR/9 0.26
K% 29.8

It's true, they didn't really steal bases in those days...Mantle had 33 in his first 5 seasons, all in single digits...DiMaggio had 30 in his career and never stole more than 6 in a season

Odd dynamic with Cam Schlittler's 9 walks in 14.2 IP

He's thrown 69% strikes (MLB avg 64%), so what gives?

13% of PA go to 3-ball counts, and Schlittler's at 17 (not too bad)

But while 43% of 3-ball counts turn into walks, for Schlittler it's 9 out of 10 batters in his first 3 starts

Yankees pitching for the middle game in Miami

Couldn't have gone worse for Bird/Bednar/Doval in their Yankees debuts. Hill/Weaver/Williams have been worked a ton lately and were unavailable, but are probably good to go today. 9-man bullpen for another day until Gil comes back tomorrow.

Yankees/Marlins Lineups!

Ridiculous game last night, a pair of fireballers starting today (Cam Schlittler & Eury Perez both averaging 97.9 MPH with their 4-seamers)

Game at 4 on YES, BP/Pre at 3/3:30

Thanks!

Over on the other site I did a big “playoffs since 1995” thread x.com/jamessmyth62...

Munson's home run had a 57% jump in win probability (29 to 86), the 2nd-biggest by the Yankees in their postseason history

#1 is Charlie Keller's GW 2R2B in Gm 4 of the 1941 WS after Mickey Owen's dropped third strike kept the game alive (69%, 14 to 83)

YouTube video by MLB 1978 ALCS Gm3: Munson's homer puts Yankees ahead

Underrated Yankees postseason moment that you don't see often

1978 Game 3 of a tied best-of-5 ALCS, down 5-4 in the 8th inning, Munson 2RHR for a 6-5 win, they clinched the next night and won the World Series www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcqQ...

Thurman Munson
June 7, 1947 - August 2, 1979

New Yankees/Marlins just dropped

6-0 in the 5th...Yankees first 6-run blown-lead loss since...August 13, 2023 in their previous game at Miami (7-1 in 6th, lost 8-7)

9-4 in the 7th...their first loss after leading by 5+ in the 7th inning or later since that same Marlins game

Honeymoon lasted one day
All 4 trade pickups implode and the Marlins win 13-12

Yankees first loss when scoring 12+ runs since
8/18/1996 vs Seattle 13-12 in 12 innings

Yankees with 4+ Hits, 1+ HR, 2+ SB in Game
Bob Meusel 4/30/1923 at WAS
Joe Pepitone 4/11/1969 at DET
Roberto Kelly 4/4/1989 at MIN
Roberto Kelly 6/23/1991 vs MIN
Chuck Knoblauch 4/14/1999 vs BAL
Anthony Volpe 8/1/2025 at MIA