Ali Duffey

One of the all-time great test matches. One of the all-time great series.

Topsy-turvy, up and down and, in the end, perfectly balanced. Can't say fairer than that.

Ed Miliband would let a turbine farm destroy Brontë country. We need net zero, but at what cost? | Simon Jenkins Of course the climate crisis must be confronted, but history, tranquility and beauty must also count for something, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

The Guardian will publish scary headlines about ice sheet and AMOC collapse on a Friday, then stuff like this on a Monday: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

How are people supposed to navigate this? Is climate change an urgent problem, or not?

"some experts are sceptical"..

New Scientist has been poor on distinguishing serious and unserious climate intervention ideas recently. There isn't even a peer-reviewed paper making the case for this yet!

Yeah, the conspiracy theories are growing in a very scary way

A very good if somewhat strange watch.

not very informative on risk-reward tradeoffs for solar geo though

@eaterofsun.bsky.social might be of interest

..and is why a framing of SRM as an "in case of emergency break-glass" type intervention can be misleading

A long table summarising the main findings of the paper

BUT, once things are already tipped, SRM might not be able to get you back - we assessed "reversibiility" as ineffective or only partially effective for many important systems.

This shouldn't be surprising - this behaviour is part of what makes these things "tipping points"

the slight less TLDR version is that SRM likely reduce the strength of driving factors for tipping in a range of systems, generally by reducing temperature but in some cases by restoring other climatic drivers too

The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements Abstract. The avoidance of hitting tipping points has been invoked as a significant benefit of solar radiation modification (SRM) techniques; however, the physical science underpinning this has thus f...

here's the paper
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Given this context, I'm delighted to share a new review on the solar geoengineering and earth system tipping points. Its a long read including ice sheets, AMOC, coral reefs, Amazon dieback and various others..

TLDR: solar geo probably helps avoid tipping, but a lot more research is needed

New opportunity: Become a DSG Fellow and contribute to building critical expertise on solar geoengineering governance. Early- or mid-career and working in climate science, policy, ethics, law, or humanities with an interest in SRM? Apply now: www.sgdeliberation.org/our-work/res...

The intro to this paper of mine last year has some potentially useful refs on the hydrological response to SRM, particularly on seperating the fast and slow responses to CO2

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

This may all be somewhat tangential to your argument though..

My thinking was that G1 has unchanged global mean temp, but a different spatial pattern (cooler tropics, warmer poles, amongst other things), as well as the extra GHGs and less sunlight.

Kravitz 2015 describes the CMIP6-era GeoMIP experiments gmd.copernicus.org/articles/8/3...

...

Awesome! The G1 GeoMIP experiment might be a nice additional test case?

Also, small typo on line 86 (two 'η_uniform's)

And remember that the peak temperatures you experience in SE England in the next couple of days will be 4-5°C warmer than they would have been with similar weather patterns in the climate of a century ago.

The scariest plot in the paper is this one. The Arctic is rapidly heading towards a qualitatively different winter atmospheric state, in which strong stability near the surface no longer dominates.

Also take a look if you are an enthusiast for large numbers of subplots, i think the (w) here is my record.

This is Vasily Kanaki (left) and Igor Tsigelnitsky preparing a radiosonde at "North Pole 3" station in 1954. One of 1000s of radiosondes that contributed atmospheric profiles to our analysis.

It was great fun collaborating with Robbie and others on this paper.

The stability of the winter Arctic atmosphere is a big part of why it is warming so fast in that season, so its important to understand whether the models are doing a reasonable job, and if not, why.

The image makes it look like he's changed his mind..

Is planetary boundaries the bad idea, or the idea that there is no such thing as them?

Geoengineering and metaphors, 2009 to 2025: Continuity and change - Making Science Public Since around 2006, I have been interested in speculations about geoengineering, that is, attempts to deal with climate change by directly intervening in the planet’s atmosphere, oceans, or land. Such interventions include pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or dampening solar radiation. In the UK there have been three inflection points in reflections about such ...

In today's post I catch up with some #geoengineering #metaphors which I have been observing since around 2009 blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingscienc...

Feels like the 1.5C date has been coming towards us faster than we have been going towards it over the last few years

A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for Scenario Space Exploration Abstract. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is a form of climate intervention that has been proposed as a way to reflect incoming solar radiation in order to provide a cooling effect and offset so...

Come for the acronym puns, stay for the SAI emulator trained on data from two different ESMs across a wide range of injection strategies

(great new pre-print lead by Jared Farley)

egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

hosting it in Cape Town has its benefits too..

I had a fantastic time this week at the Degrees Global Forum on SRM. The largest conference of its kind so far, and a real step forward in diversifying the conversation on solar geo.

Huge kudos to @degrees.ngo for pulling it off.

A rare win for the UK government 🇬🇧

Amanda Burson's Eco-Ice is under climate cooling