Will

DWP data increasingly bleak. Hysterysis setting in as LT job seekers become more common and the in-to-work rate for job seekers continues to fall

Unemployment expressed via the welfare system?

UK Manufacturing PMIs are currently worse than the country with 15% interest rates

Crowding out?

Consumer confidence in the UK is very low

- housing market stalled
- savings rate elevated
- youth unemployment high

Recent quarters of growth heavily supported by gov spending rather than private sector. Not ideal.

CX is on the case

Net approval ratings of party leaders and -46 (KS), -39 (KB) and even the top polling party by a 2x margin has a leader with a net favourability rating of -35 (NF).

I'd have expected that to be more prominent in 'top issues' selection

1) We have a political system that should produce a stable duopoly
2) the stable duopoly parties have a combined 32% vote intention share
3) the incumbent has a 11% gross favourable rating and the leading opposition by seats don't even have higher voting intention

Lack of faith in politics being that low gives me lack of faith in that polling

All of Europe have, to varying extents, made the Same choice of favouring redistribution and political stability

The US in various ways is defecting from the innovation-led economic model in favour of a more nationalistic model

In the Economist this week: fertility decline, long-term elderly care crisis, Europe deficit problem, non-response to Draghi report...

Not a cheery one, but good to have the discussions

A contracting population need not be a catastrophe The economics of a shrinking world

I am quite optimistic about AI and robotics (capital deepening)

A contracting population need not be a catastrophe
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
From The Economist

We, as observers, can all invent what we wish were the case!

It seems a weird choice of the government to BOTH have those constraints and to have historically low headroom as a buffer in the case of 'events' lower the forecast

Well yes, takes ~25bn headroom to be within post-2010 average

That's a pretty evil thing to say

Generally not looking healthy and with greater labour market regulation we should expect youth unemployment to converge to EU averages having already risen above OECD averages

Any reforms to the labour market coming up?

Yes - the Employment Rights Bill which the IMF cite as a risk to labour market flexibility with particular adverse risks to younger employees

Average among countries that are having fiscal crises

Negative sum..

At least you can always find jobs in the non-cyclical bits of the economy, right?

National wage hikes effects on employer behaviour from BoE's Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - August 2025

Rise of singles (umarried, divorced or widowed) and no/ low children households are big offsetting secular trends

Openings down
Layoffs up
Quits up(?)

VED is about 10bps, VAT on school fees is about 20bps, water bills 30bps, NIC about 50bps, goodness knows what hiking minimum wage by 6.7% contributed.

This is a policy-led idiosyncratic bout of inflation

But most (all?) of that excess, as Chris points out, is from one-offs in policy space

It looks like she thought she could buy off the Party/ MP base with the cuts first and do the liberalisation of planning later

Cultural and intellectual capital erodes far less quickly than economic capital

Good schools teach exam technique