Will

Mentorship remains one of the great under-theorised factors in innovation and progress

For example, Geoffrey Hinton was PhD advisor to giants* in quantitative investing and in AI development

* Peter Brown (CEO of RenTech) and Ilya Sutskever (Co-founder of OpenAI)

Which stocks?

1.5% pa?! That's collosal

Because motorists think they're above the law

Ease borrowing curbs for development schemes, gilt investors urge Reeves Aviva and Legal & General warn chancellor that push to boost growth will be inhibited without change

Ease borrowing curbs for development schemes, gilt investors urge Reeves - www.ft.com/content/7db5... via @FT

Oh and probably not great for long end gilts

Japan results are pretty monumental and will accelerate Yen depreciation. USD not so popular as a safe haven ccy these days. CHF and EUR upside probably still underrated

ECB has unemployment below neutral level, typically underestimates wage growth and will see lower inflation from energy prices feeding through but they seem quite cognisant of that.

I reckon the narrative of a rate hike being the next move is right because the upside risks in '27 are quite large

Exactly right, markets want sustainable solutions to a large dual deficit and it is not especially bothered by large*, sensible (that's the tricky bit), infra spending

*cyclical considerations are also relevant

I have the same question for his adversaries

Do you have a view on what's more important: age skew or geography?

Not sure what kind of trend following/ momo investing has gone wrong but it's something like that

Take care, Danny!

India potential growth rate is on the up

The FY26 Economic Survey has upped the rate from 6.5% to 7.0%.

That does also come with a downgrade to 2026 estimates of real growth to 7% at the midpoint vs 7.4% for the first advanced estimate

PIGS keep winning

Soft data seems broadly positive

Where are the rest of the G7 on this metric?

(the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024, causing a base effect. The base effects have now reached their peak and will phase out over the next three months)

Is this a k-shaped economy?

Some pretty exciting JGB long end moves overnight, eh?

Construction, including repair work is really struggling (quite a large negative revision of -0.6 for September feeding in).

On the upside we're still all having fun and going on holiday and for recreation!

This year is the year of the fire horse in Japan. It is considered an unlucky year to birth a girl. The last time was in 1966 and live births fell by 19% y/y!

BERNANKE/YELLEN/GREENSPAN JOINT STATEMENT:

“.. this is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets ..”

Which of the following best characterises consumers sense of inflation in the UK?

a) violently falling
b) gradually reaccelerating
c) very slowly 'returning to normal'

I'd argue that c) captures consumer sentiment best

For various reasons economists like to use y/y numbers but I've never been convinced they're the 'right' metric to think about

Does the public experience inflation as 3-monthly, 12-monthly or 36?

I don't see any any great reason that the y/y measure should be privileged when considering sentiment

For the median fresh grad? Completely agree.

However I think that undersells a) the political permission structure that the policy was sold under (that remains today and b) the distribution of experiences that occur within that set which is pretty meaningful in size and variation

It's amazing that voting isn't more extreme for u30s in the UK given the amount the percentile income they'd need to earn higher than their parents to access the same set of goods and services

Netflix, CoD and holidays to southern Italy are cheap though, so there's that

Additional one-offs previous cohorts had?

- lower old age dependency ratios
- lower pension spending per pensioner
- more rapid career progression (think about avg. age of retirement)
- faster growing economy, per se

Ofc, lots of advantages that new cohorts have too but generally less significant

Even worse for those in the public sector where such a large proportion of remuneration comes via a pension which back-loads the benefits meanwhile they struggle to pay for a) student loan(s) b) a large deposit for a house incl. large stamp duty and c) nursery fees likely all at once! Madness

All of these things were easier to manage on prior cohorts (also think about childcare regulations and availability of au pairs)

Lifecycle taxation is basically ignored by gov policies and so peak tax burden relative to needs is likely highest for careerists looking to have kids for the first time