Will

French homes are roughly the same cost of land as UK homes but the structures are worth 2.4x more

Housing cost as a % of income is a fairly steady relationship, but quality of housing isn't

If house prices fall in real terms because of productivity improvements that's good

Housing costs and familial support is so idiosyncratic across households in NYC that salary is actively unhelpful when taken in isolation imo

The Bank pointing out likely policy contributors

What do you find concerning in the details?

And the projections aren't even that negative, not close to modelling a recession, for example

They said that we're making a mess of it by a) having a really strict rule and b) giving ourselves on room for error

Both choices, both own goals

That's not a very nice thing to say

Short duration, I really want to see how much we can crush price volatility

How far away from scale batteries are we?

Presumably AI has a little to do with it too

I'll rephrase, we've had wage compression as minwage raises the floor while agg. productivity is sluggish (on a 5y view)

In places like Northern Ireland where minwage is v high as % of median I'm worried about high wages translating to unemployment faster (both via failed matching and by severance)

Nominal rigidity *after* massive wage growth (some because of inflation, some labour shortages, some min wage hikes) makes me worry about cyclicality more

Equilibrium not clearing well for <24s is a persistent worry in isolation, but for me also an early warning indicator for the LM as a whole

Yeah, exactly that kind of thing.

I'm a bit worried that the gov and BoE are being complacent on jobs at the moment.

Rushing into another minimum wage hike, particularly at the accelerated rate for <21s into a downturn would be a policy error.

Do you think there should be path adjustments re cyclicality of macro to the 2/3 goal?

Similarly curious re size of the problem of geographic mismatches

Quite the recovery story for greek capital markets. It's been 15y in the making, but the Athens Stock Exchange finally breaks above the 2,000 mark again

VIETNAM GOVT:

JANUARY-JULY EXPORTS UP 14.6% Y/Y AT $261.8 BILLION

JANUARY-JULY IMPORTS UP 17.9% Y/Y AT $252.1 BILLION

That's right

Congratulations, Archie!

Granny can't get a knee replacement within six months? Taxed

Young couple struggling with fertility getting IVF? Taxed

Chemotherapy for dying children? Taxed

Grandpops going blind from cataracts? Taxes

A campaign to hike taxes on Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children is probably not a vote winner

Contra data point for the thread: NEET % showing early signs of improvement?

UK fiscal policy has been designed to help pensioners since 2010

As a consequence after housing costs they have equal incomes as working age households at the 50th and 80th and higher at the 20th percentile (2023 data)

The headlines of a country that does not prioritise growth

The fact each episodes content is so clearly unplanned is both v frustrating and often extremely useful

Why does it suck?

Huge negative revisions

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly sure the usual problem is that, in corp land, interns are far more likely to land a conversion, but in the civil service it's pretty open competition once you apply for the permanent roles

That was certainly my experience of navigating both systems.

I wonder why they picked those particular reference years..

Tbf you can take in a lot of money by being a personal finance YouTuber without shilling crypto (because YouTube will sell pricey ads on your videos that shill crypto)