Nate Manzo

It’s almost here.

The CFBD Starter Pack drops in the morning.
It's been a long time coming.
I hope it makes building your first model easier, faster, and more fun.

Here’s a quiet preview 🧵

Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

james surowiecki has discovered where the completely fabricated trump tariff rate has come from for each country

"...for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."

Was just informed that I have been laid off.

I am actively seeking full-time employment in either data analytics or sports analysis (ideally both!).

Skills: SQL, R, Python, Excel, Power BI, Tableau, AWS, Snowflake, Databricks (and more)

Please DM with any leads.

A table of college basketball predictions. The full table can be found at the website here: https://johnbedwards.io/blog/march_madness_2025_round_one/

early tip-off on the west coast for round one, so i'm posting my predictions tonight! hope everyone enjoys couch-potatoing-out in front of the tv tomorrow!

I made a backup of the `data` repo. I suggest if you need 538 stuff grab it while you can ASAP:

github.com/orgs/fivethi...

The 2025 NFL draft QBs career FBS passing yards sectioned off by depth of target. So for example, 38.7% of Shedeur Sanders career passing yards came on targets less than 5 yards downfield

UMass landed Yale LB transfer Dean Shaffer, and I'm mainly telling you this so I can show you how he transformed from "classic Ivy League linebacker" into The Joker.

The first Senators to actually do anything about the Trump admin

Noticing a bunch of new people on here in the past couple days.

If you're looking for college football folks to follow, I've created the ultimate starter pack.

Always looking for new additions, so if I'm missing anyone please let me know!

Checked in on the BSky usage stats again just for fun.

Interesting that we’re in this period of slow and steady use increase?

bsky.jazco.dev/stats

Interesting! I was a little bummed the momentum slowed down over here but slow steady growth might be more sustainable long term

Very rude of the football gods to force me to root for Boise in the Fiesta Bowl but here we are.

A list of literally any other conf or community that would be a better use of your time than ssac:

North Carolina men's basketball point differential by quarter

Carolina hoops point differential by "quarter" or 10 minute segment through 11 games this season

-25 in the 1st half
+103 in the 2nd half
-3 in overtime

#Rstats #collegebasketball

A true second half team. Good looking viz!

Sometimes you don’t need to do your own research. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

In other words, if the very top of college football this year feels like it might be a tick below the very top of college football over most of the last 10 years, the numbers back that up.

I want to live in a world where more than a few games on everybody’s schedule “count” because we decided to draw a line at 25 rather than discuss the results of every game.

#murica

Agreed! I’ll go a step further: based on what I’ve read about how the room operates and the presentation of the data they use, I think they also do themselves and the *process* a disservice. They apparently don’t consider the value (or lack thereof) of half or more of the game results.

I like this idea! I think the committee does themselves a discredit by cherry picking certain results as talking points during the rankings show.

Interesting how Oregon has been so consistent but hasn't hit the highs others have.

...late November back in CFB 🎶

Florida Atlantic 63, Tulsa 16

Tulsa just announced that Kevin Wilson is double ultra fired after today's result.

This will probably happen, but what SHOULD happen is a penalty for the losers that instigate the fight.

Had to Google to verify this occurred this season, smh

#dataisbeautiful

How often has each contender* played like the "best" team in the country (as measured by count of 95th percentile opp-adjusted FEI game ratings)?

6 - Ohio St
4 - Alabama, Texas
3 - Georgia, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Oregon, South Carolina

*some of these teams are probably not getting into the playoff

A scatterplot of F+ offense (x-axis) and defense (y-axis) team ratings. All end of year ratings from 2007-2023 are plotted in the background, and 2024 ratings through week 13 are highlighted. Undefeated teams, 1-loss teams, and 2-loss teams are featured.

F+ Ratings (combining FEI and SP+) through Week 13: bcftoys.com/2024-fplus