Matteo Giuliani Pedraza

This is a brilliant piece on the restructuring of political competition in Western Europe and goes far beyond the question of populism. Great also for teaching.

New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!

We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.

Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇

The wages of ethnic power: Socioeconomic status, group threat, and anti-immigrant attitudes in Western Europe - Ibrahim Enes Atac, Charles Seguin, Brandon Gorman, 2025 Group threat theories explain anti-immigrant attitudes as emerging from threats to the perceived or actual power of one’s ethnic group. Studies also show that i...

🚨 New publication: “The Wages of Ethnic Power: Socioeconomic Status, Group Threat, and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes in Western Europe” 🚨

Just published in the International Journal of Comparative Sociology with Charles Seguin and Brandon Gorman.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

The Italian right-wing coalition has two clear advantages over their opponents.

They agree on who constitutes the bulk of their electorate -- to whom they need to throw some bones. And they have found a simple system to select their PMs, which everybody within it has shown they will respect.

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

Why we should rethink how we categorise party families in western Europe It is common to refer to party families such as “social democrats” and the “radical right” when discussing European politics. Drawing on a new book, Peter Egge Langsæther writes that while th...

Excited to share a glimpse of my book on party families via LSE European Politics and Policy! The book delves into the heart of what constitutes a party family, offer updated categorisations, contemporary descriptions, and an insight into their supporters. #polisky

blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...

La identificación partidista es un concepto que se inventó en los años cincuenta del siglo pasado. Su modo de funcionar tiene problemas, pero su ausencia tiene más problemas. Y, sin ese tipo de mecanismos de identificación grupal, que ahorran costes de información, la democracia no sería posible.

Somehting like that, in the early 1850's he worked at Meucci's candle stick factory, in Staten Island.

It was indeed a weird turn in his career, because he was already a famous general in both South America and Italy, but from what I've read of his memories, he regards it as the most normal thing.

If you have two measures of the same confounder, you can just include both of them in your regression model Sometimes, researchers worry about multicollinearity in situations where it’s actually a non-issue. Here’s one such scenario. Imagine a situation where you are interested in the effect of X on Y (X...

New blog post!

Let's say you have two measures meant to capture the same confounder. They're highly correlated. Can you still proceed with your regression analysis?

(I admit, the title is a bit of a spoiler)

www.the100.ci/2025/10/13/i...

A small detail I like about that story is that among the reasons Garibaldi considered joining the union's army was that he wrongly believed that had become a US citizen when he lived in New York.

Not a very sophisticated solution, but maybe just graphing the 'live' rating at the end of each chapter or book (or however you call the parts the illiad is divided in, I don't know the word in English). That way one could easily see where each hero ranked at the time of his death.

Enhorabuena Tarek!!

Really good and really really interesting.

To a large extent, it goes against my expectations, and yet it does cover it's bases well enough that I may have to accept that maybe norms are a bigger part of the far right story than what I initially thought.

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

Selection bias plane.

Ada: Somehow I always hurt only my most sensitive body parts!

Me: Okay kid, it’s time we have The Talk—

Et voila! Case proven.
#solar

Congratulations! I truly enjoyed the reading. I do hope that the final plea for further research gets followed up, it looks like lots of interesting things may come out of this.

I’m very excited to share that my paper “Cleavage theory meets civil society: A framework and research agenda” with @eborbath.bsky.social & Swen Hutter has now been published online in ‪@wepsocial.bsky.social‬ (w/ open access funding thanks to @wzb.bsky.social‬!)

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Absolutely, I am ready even to buy some story closer to the original claim. Maybe Democrats are actively doing something that creates that perception, I just need to see some evidence to support that claim. And them some more showing that this supposed halo of wokness is bad at the ballotbox.

It is amazing how often "bad things are the fault of the left for being too woke" is presented as a default truth, with out need for any logical or empirical support.

Of course, the good bigot knows how to use any small and apparently neutral cognitive bias such this in order to build his castle of biggotry.
🧵2/2

I do not remember who I read saying that humans only understand three probabilities: 0%, 50% and 100%.

This statement (I don't know how well founded) is consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have encountered ever since.

I believe it also applies to fractions and continous distributions.
🧵1/2

Does reasoning well entail being a basically pleasant bureucrat?

It's quite funny that fairly early in its history philosophy invented writing well (Plato) and reasoning well (Aristotle) and made it clear you can only do one; subsequently clarifying that we'll typically do neither.

I think I have access, which article do you need?

"Overall, our findings suggest a “ratchet-effect” heuristic: left parties may still push back against rising disparities but have given up on lowering existing levels of inequality. To us, the findings imply lock-in effects [...]"

Federal court refuses to block Alabama’s “divisive concepts” law, says university faculty classroom speech is government speech with no First Amendment protection. This dangerous development allows lawmakers to dictate what professors say in class. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Done it! It is impossible to do it without developing hypotheses. My siblings and I have a whole set of theories for the interaction between gender, cat-dog feelings, and self reported cookie eating capacity.

Your students will have so much fun!

The @epssnet.bsky.social call for the 2026 conference in Belfast opened today! 😮

epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

Deadline: 7 November 2025

The old party is dying. The new party struggles to be born. Now is the time of Schumers.