Knights Hussaini

I forgot about Schmid, but yes - I agree that he's the most hawkish voter.

I think there is a not insignificant chance (15%) that we get one dissent in favor of holding. Goolsbee would be my guess.

Bill PPPulte's PPP PPProblem? "The dildo doth protest too much, methinks" - Hamlet

A substack writer looks at Bill Pulte’s background
open.substack.com/pub/keubiko/...

Exclusive: Bill Pulte accused Fed Governor Lisa Cook of fraud. His relatives filed housing claims similar to hers Close relatives of the federal official who has accused a Federal Reserve governor of improperly claiming primary residence on two properties have declared the same status on two homes in two different states, public records show.

Exclusive: Bill Pulte accused Fed Governor Lisa Cook of fraud. His relatives filed housing claims similar to hers. Via Reuters

Zaslav?

Interesting observation. Thanks for sharing. Does the higher sensitivity to asset price declines among the wealthy affect your conclusion?

Yup, you're right. My point was more about seeing a decline in real activity in lower income cohorts.

K shaped economy? MCD domestic foot traffic down

Once we're at the landing point with collection, how are you expecting the cumulative burden to be split?

Ah, you're right! So essentially no pass-through like you said. Makes Goldman's assumption of 70% pass-through even funnier.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Commodities Less Food and Energy Commodities in U.S. City Average Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Commodities Less Food and Energy Commodities in U.S. City Average

I know PCE is better, but we already have CPI - core goods shows .22 from April to June, with almost the entirety in June.

So 1/4 pass-through over 3 mo. My 2/3 estimate is based on just June data (assuming measurement lags). I think 1/4 - 1/2 is a safe bet.

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0...

What's the evidence that pass through is limited? Based on the rise in core goods, it looks like ~50% is passing through to consumers.

Rough math:
3% monthly increase in net tariffs * 14% import share * 50% gets us to the 0.2 in this morning's CPI report.

How confident are you that Powell will stay on as a regular governor? As a huge fan of his stewardship, I'm really hoping he does, but I can't read him.

This is an argument that today's market optimists make - that today's best companies are uniquely valuable.

I think a fair counter is that we've seen past periods of innovation where tech dominates and yet valuations still mean revert. Some relevant charts:

www.morganstanley.com/im/publicati...

Retail sales are most likely to be impacted and CPI the least, it seems

There's absolutely a level of hysteria in the online discourse. But the amount of executive overreach does hint that there's a grain of truth behind it.

Saw one in Phoenix

When does it get priced in tho

If the term premium going to zero is an indication of how yields might evolve, the long end has further to fall. I think Andy at Damped Spring favors the long end now atm, unlike last fall.

On the other side, are you worries about Fed/contractor layoffs causing a disorderly cooling in the labor market?

Thanks! As a newbie to the labor market, it's still surprising to me that just understanding the data sources is a challenge in itself.

Schedule of News Releases and Full Data Availability for County Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Release Calendar

Would the revision be released on March 5th, 2025 based on this calendar?

www.bls.gov/cew/release-...